Moody’s Cuts India’s 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 6%

Moody’s Ratings on Tuesday lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast for India to 6.0% from 6.8%, citing subdued private consumption, capital formation, and industrial activity amid higher energy prices.

The forecast is lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s estimate, which projects GDP growth for FY2026/27 at 6.9%, with first-quarter growth expected at 6.8%.

In its Global Macro Outlook May update, the agency said that over the next six months, the impact of higher energy prices and fuel- and fertilizer-related shortages will vary widely across countries, reflecting differences in exposure and resilience.

“The global outlook remains highly uncertain amid an increasingly prolonged confrontation and fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran.

We estimate growth losses ranging from around 0.8 percentage points for India,” the agency said.