India 10Y Yield Range-Bound

2025-12-17 08:09 By Joshua Ferrer 1 min. read

The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec hovered around 6.58%, trading in a sideways range, as investors braced ahead of the central bank’s debt purchase, while its intervention in the currency market fueled expectations of additional liquidity support.

The Reserve Bank of India stepped in forcefully to halt the rupee’s slide after it touched repeated record lows, a move that gave traders confidence that liquidity injections could extend beyond the scheduled bond-buying operation.

Investors are positioning ahead of the RBI’s scheduled 500 billion rupee bond purchase on Thursday, expected to focus on the former benchmark 6.33% 2035 bond.

A similar operation last week, briefly lifted prices and strengthened bets that the central bank will continue to support liquidity.

Still, yields may face upward pressure as markets see the rate-cut cycle may be over, a view reinforced by more than $1 billion in foreign bond outflows so far in December as investors reposition ahead of year-end.



News Stream
India 10Y Yield Rises Amid Middle East Tensions
The yields on India’s 10-year G-Sec rose to 6.7%, marking a one-week high, as global geopolitical tensions weighed on investor sentiment. Markets reacted sharply after joint US-Israeli strikes in Iran reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prompting concerns about retaliatory action and broader instability. The uptick in yields has also been influenced by offshore activity in non-deliverable overnight index swaps. Last week, the most liquid one-year, two-year, and five-year swaps saw strong receiving interest. Meanwhile, investors digested a positive domestic signal as India’s Manufacturing PMI climbed to 56.9 in February, up from 55.4 in January and marking a four-month high, reflecting a notable improvement in operating conditions and underlying business activity. Markets were closed on March 3, 2026, for the Holi holiday, with trading set to resume on March 4.
2026-03-02
India 10Y Yield Rises Ahead of Fiscal Auction
The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec rose to around 6.7%, reversing earlier losses, as the market awaited upcoming debt issuance. Attention now turns to supply dynamics, with New Delhi scheduled to sell INR 320 billion of the benchmark 2035 bond on Friday, the final auction of the note for the current fiscal year. The level of demand and the cut-off yield at the auction are expected to set the tone for bond market direction in March. The rise in yields, however, was limited by broader market sentiment, supported by sustained interest in longer-dated securities. Ultra-long bonds, particularly the 30-year and 40-year papers, have seen continued buying from long-term investors, including insurance companies, amid increased inflows in recent weeks. So far this financial year, yields on 30-year and 40-year securities have risen by roughly 45 basis points, compared with a more modest 10-basis-point increase in the 10-year benchmark.
2026-02-26
India 10Y Yields Fall on State Bond Demand
The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec fell to around 6.67%, retreating from an over one-week high in the previous session, as bond prices firmed on stronger-than-expected demand for state government debt. A recent state bond auction drew robust investor interest, with total issuance exceeding the planned amount and most cutoff yields coming in below market expectations, signaling solid appetite for longer-duration paper. On the other hand, state governments are set to raise about INR 445 billion this week, alongside an INR 320 billion auction of the benchmark 10-year bond, keeping upward pressure on the market. Persistent issuance overhang has reinforced expectations that yields will struggle to move materially lower. Yields remain sensitive to global developments and oil market pressures, which continue to influence sentiment. Looking ahead, traders expect the benchmark to remain within a 6.65%–6.78% range, with upcoming auctions and demand absorption key to direction.
2026-02-23