India 10Y Yield Lacks Direction

2025-12-03 08:58 By Joshua Ferrer 1 min. read

The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec hovered around 6.5%, maintaining a sideways trading pattern, as sentiment remained under pressure over the uncertainty over the Reserve Bank's policy direction and a potential US-India trade deal.

India remains one of the few major economies without a trade pact with the US, and the steep US tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods continued to hurt exports, pushing the country’s trade deficit to a record-high.

A robust Q3 GDP data did little to support sentiment, while a widening current account gap added further pressure.

Attention now turns to the Reserve Bank of India’s upcoming policy meeting on December 5, where most economists expect a rate cut and a hold through 2026.

However, the rupee’s weakness and a stronger-than-expected GDP print have reduced expectations of easing, despite earlier signals from RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra pointing to record-low inflation.



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