Indian 10-Year Yield Retreats from 4-Month High

The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec hovered near 6.8%, pausing its recent decline after briefly touching a three-week low, as investors reassessed risks tied to global developments and upcoming domestic supply. Concerns over the US–Iran conflict remained a key overhang, even as reports indicated that the two sides are considering a short-term extension of their ceasefire to allow more time for negotiations. Crude oil prices, with Brent holding near $95 per barrel, added to the cautious tone. Elevated energy costs remain a key concern for India given its heavy reliance on imports, with higher oil prices historically feeding into both inflation expectations and pressure on bond yields and the currency. At the same time, traders positioned ahead of a fresh government debt auction scheduled for Friday, where New Delhi plans to raise INR 320 billion through sales of five- and 40-year securities, adding to near-term supply pressure in the market.

The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec rose to around 6.9%, extending gains from the previous week as a sharp rise in oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions triggered broad-based selling in domestic bond markets. Sentiment weakened after Brent crude jumped over 7% to $102.2 per barrel, following the US move to begin a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports after weekend talks failed to reach a peace deal, raising fears of renewed supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. The selloff was further amplified by foreign portfolio outflows, with overseas investors continuing to trim exposure to local debt amid uncertainty over growth and inflation dynamics. Traders now expect the benchmark yield to trade in a 6.85%–7.00% range, as markets remain closely attuned to oil price movements, capital flows, and evolving geopolitical risks. Debt markets will be closed on April 14 and will resume trading the following day.

The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec rose to around 6.97%, extending gains for another session, as investors reassessed inflation risks following a rebound in crude prices. Brent crude climbed toward $97 per barrel amid renewed doubts over the US-Iran ceasefire and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a reassessment of India’s import cost pressures. Traders noted that yields had eased in the previous session after the ceasefire news, but that move has since reversed as volatility in oil markets returned. Market participants also pointed to positioning ahead of the upcoming 10-year government security auction, with some fresh short positions building in anticipation of supply. The Reserve Bank of India is scheduled to conduct a government securities auction worth INR 34,000, which has added to cautious sentiment in the bond market as investors factor in near-term supply pressure.