Indian GDP Rises More Than Expected

The Indian gross domestic product expanded by 8.2% from the previous year in the September quarter of 2025, well above the market consensus of a 7.3% expansion to pick up from the 7.8% growth rate from the earlier period. It was the sharpest annual growth rate since the March quarter of 2024, reflecting the resilience of the Indian economy to the 50% tariffs from the United States that were passed in August, aided by an increase in government spending and GST tax cuts to support consumer confidence and private investment. Consequently, consumer spending growth accelerated to 7.9% from 7% in the earlier period, accounting for 57% of all GDP output. On the value added front, manufacturing expanded by 9.1% in the period, financial, real estate & professional services surged 10.2%, and construction output rose by 7.2%. Real growth was also supported by a softer deflator, as retail inflation approached record lows and wholesale prices deflated.

The Indian gross domestic product expanded by 7.8% from the previous year in the three months to June of 2025, accelerating from the 7.4% in the previous period to mark the sharpest growth rate in five quarters and beat market expectations of a 6.6% increase. The result indicated that the Indian economy extended its period of traction following a slowdown in the second half of calendar 2024, supported by stronger consumer spending as inflation slowed and improved households' purchasing power. Private consumption expanded by 7% annually in the period, while government expenditure jumped by 7.4% and gross fixed capital formation expanded by 7.8%. In the meantime, net external demand contributed negatively to the GDP amid tariff threats by the US government, with imports surging by 10.9% annually despite softer fuel prices, while exports expanded a lower 6.3%.

The Indian GDP expanded 7.4% from the previous year in the March quarter of 2025, accelerating from the upwardly revised 6.4% growth in the earlier period and sharply above market expectations of a 6.7% rise, marking the sharpest growth rate of the fiscal year. The recovery pointed to traction in Indian economic growth after a period of softening, as lower food and energy prices improved eased benchmark interest rates and spurred investment, while India's low dependence on exports made it robust to global tariff threats. Gross fixed capital formation surged by 9.4% in the period, the most in nearly two years, and private consumption expanded by 6%. In the meantime, the net foreign demand had a positive impact in the GDP growth, with exports rising by 3.9%, while imports slumped by 12.7%. Regarding the full fiscal year of 2025, the Indian GDP expanded by 6.5%, the least in four years.