Rupee Recovers After Hitting Record Low

The Indian rupee strengthened to around 95.2 per dollar, recovering from previous-session losses as lower crude oil prices improved sentiment. The rebound followed a sharp decline in global oil markets amid optimism over a potential US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough. Brent crude fell to $88.80 per barrel, its lowest level in two months, after President Donald Trump suggested a peace agreement with Iran could be reached as early as the weekend. The improved outlook also lifted Asian equities, while US Treasury yields and the dollar weakened. Despite the positive mood, investors remain cautious, as earlier signs of progress in US-Iran talks failed to produce a final deal. The Reserve Bank of India has implemented measures to attract dollar inflows and support the currency, but the rupee's recent slide below pre-intervention levels highlights ongoing challenges. Analysts say lasting support for the rupee will require a sustained decline in oil prices.

The Indian rupee fell to around 95.6 per dollar, giving up part of its recent gains as escalating tensions between Iran and the United States fueled a sharp rise in global oil prices. Earlier this week, the currency strengthened after dollar sales by state-owned banks, which traders believe were conducted on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India. Despite the RBI's efforts, traders cautioned that lasting stability in the rupee would depend heavily on developments in the energy market. Higher crude oil prices remain a major concern for India after Brent crude surged to about $95.50 per barrel following fresh US strikes on multiple targets in Iran overnight. Iran responded by announcing plans to close the Strait of Hormuz, while also declaring retaliatory attacks against 18 US military targets in Kuwait and Bahrain. The rupee also faces pressure from a weaker global risk environment, with US equities extending losses and boosting demand for the dollar.

The Indian rupee strengthened to around 95.1, pausing recent losses as signs of central bank support helped stabilize the currency. Traders pointed to likely dollar sales and longer-term dollar-rupee swap operations after pressure from maturing offshore non-deliverable forward positions pushed the rupee to an intraday low earlier in the session. Traders indicated that the RBI may have sold dollars in the spot market to curb excessive volatility while simultaneously conducting longer-term dollar-rupee swap operations. The combination of spot intervention and swap transactions likely helped ease immediate pressure on the rupee without significantly tightening domestic liquidity conditions. However, the rupee continues to face challenges from higher crude oil prices, persistent foreign fund outflows, and a strong US dollar. Investors are also watching upcoming U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals, which could influence the currency's near-term direction.