Rupee Recovers After Hitting Record Low

The Indian rupee strengthened to around 95.68 per dollar, extending gains to a two-week high as persistent intervention by the Reserve Bank of India and softer crude oil prices continued to support the currency. The RBI reportedly sold dollars for a second consecutive session after defending the 97-per-dollar level late last week, triggering stop-losses on long-dollar positions and helping the rupee post its biggest single-day advance in about six weeks on Monday. Meanwhile, Brent crude fell 1.5% to $87.06 per barrel after plunging 8.7% in the previous session, as a pause in US strikes on Iran raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, easing pressure on India's oil import bill. However, further appreciation was limited by a firmer dollar, with the dollar index hovering near a one-month high as traders priced in roughly a one-in-three chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike ahead of Wednesday's policy decision, even though markets broadly expect rates to remain unchanged.

The Indian rupee weakened to around 96.58 per dollar, hovering near record lows as a sharp surge in crude oil prices and fresh US tariff measures weighed on sentiment. Brent crude jumped more than 7% to above $100 per barrel after Yemen's Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, exacerbating supply concerns as trade through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely disrupted. Sentiment was further dampened after the US imposed new tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on imports from around 60 economies under a forced-labor investigation, including a 10% duty on Indian goods, fueling concerns over global trade, India's export outlook, and broader emerging-market assets. Investor focus also remained on the Reserve Bank of India, with traders watching for further intervention after state-run banks were reportedly seen selling dollars on the central bank's behalf to curb volatility and prevent the rupee from breaching record lows.

The Indian rupee hovered around 96.4 per dollar, pausing its recent slide after touching its weakest level in more than two months, though it remained under pressure from surging oil prices. Escalating tensions between the US and Iran pushed Brent crude above $96 per barrel, heightening concerns over disruptions to oil supplies and worsening the outlook for the world's third-largest oil importer. Traders also warned the rupee could face renewed depreciation should Brent climb above the $100 mark. Meanwhile, sentiment was supported by expectations that the RBI would continue to back the currency if volatility intensified, following its net sale of $6.1 billion in the foreign exchange market in May after a net $8.9 billion sale in April. Additional support came from stronger foreign inflows into Indian bonds and equities after the central bank introduced measures to attract overseas capital, while foreign exchange reserves remained sufficient to cover around 10 months of imports.