Wheat Extends Decline to Over 2-Month Low

Wheat fell for a fifth consecutive session to around $6.4 per bushel, remaining at its lowest level since August 18, as renewed hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal weighed on prices following US President Donald Trump’s push for an agreement. Trump said Washington had received nothing back for its support of Ukraine and that it was time to make a deal. US special envoy Steve Witkoff is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday to discuss proposals to end the war, following talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Escalating attacks in the Black Sea since July have damaged shipping infrastructure and disrupted wheat exports from two of the world’s largest producers. Traders are now watching for progress toward a ceasefire, which could ease supply disruptions and bring more Russian and Ukrainian wheat to global markets.

Wheat hovered around $6.6 per bushel, the lowest in two months and more than 13% below the 3-1/2-year high of $7.67 reached on August 28, as rising Russian export volumes and expectations of a strong Australian harvest weighed on the market. Traders have largely overlooked renewed Black Sea shipping attacks, focusing instead on Russia’s growing use of Baltic ports after disruptions forced southern terminals to suspend much of their activity. Rusagrotrans expects Russian wheat exports to reach 3 million tonnes in October, while other analysts have also revised forecasts higher, reflecting the pace of shipments. Meanwhile, early crop assessments in Victoria suggest Australia could produce a substantially larger wheat harvest, potentially easing supply pressures for buyers in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. However, dry conditions are limiting yields in parts of northeastern Australia, and renewed Russian-Ukrainian attacks have clouded prospects for restoring Black Sea exports.

Wheat rose to around $6.62 per bushel in mid-October, rebounding from a two-month low hit on October 16 as renewed Ukraine-Russia tensions heightened concerns over global supplies. Over the weekend, Ukraine deployed more than 1,000 drones against Russian targets, setting an oil terminal ablaze in St. Petersburg following the US resumption of intelligence sharing with Kyiv. Russia responded with strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector, including oil and gas facilities, carrying out at least 76 attacks over the past 24 hours. The escalation has cast fresh doubt on the near-term prospects for wheat shipments through the Black Sea, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv was in talks with Turkey, Egypt and India about establishing a Black Sea grain export corridor, although Russia currently opposes the proposal.