Wheat Returns to 2-Month Low

Wheat fell to around $6.65 per bushel, its lowest level since August 18, as early assessments pointed to a significantly larger Australian harvest. During a two-day crop tour, scouts from the Grain Industry Association of Victoria reported strong yields across the region, with only limited signs of water damage and disease. The prospect of increased Australian supplies could ease pressure on buyers in Southeast Asia and the Middle East as the escalating Black Sea conflict threatens grain shipments from two of the world’s largest wheat producers. Geopolitical risks remain elevated after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ended a three-day pause in attacks on Russian oil refineries, citing continued Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and uncertainty over US support. The tour covered key growing areas, including Horsham and Ouyen in Victoria and Wagga Wagga in neighboring New South Wales, with findings expected within the coming week.

Wheat rose above $6.75 a bushel, rebounding from an over two-month low of $6.69 on October 13 as traders assessed escalating security risks around Black Sea shipping. Concerns intensified after Russian drones reportedly struck two chemical tankers in Romanian territorial waters, raising fears of further disruption to a key grain-export corridor. Geopolitical tensions also deepened as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ended a three-day pause on attacks against Russian oil refineries, citing continued Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and uncertainty over US support. The decision followed growing friction with President Donald Trump over Washington’s proposed easing of restrictions on Russian diesel sales and reported limitations on Ukraine’s use of Starshield satellite services. However, increased Russian wheat shipments through alternative Baltic routes have helped ease some supply concerns.

Wheat prices fell below $6.70 per bushel in mid-October, hitting its lowest level since August 18, as US President Donald Trump’s ceasefire announcement raised hopes for a Black Sea truce. Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate “energy ceasefire,” while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv supports the ceasefire but is “awaiting details.” Traders will look for confirmation from Moscow and Kyiv, as well as signs that the agreement could pave the way for a broader de-escalation. Russia and Ukraine account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, making the Black Sea a crucial artery for global supplies. Meanwhile, Asian wheat millers are scaling back forward purchases as prices climb and Black Sea disruptions continue to constrain supplies from one of the world’s key exporting regions. According to traders and processors, some millers in Southeast and South Asia are covering their needs only through December, or even closer to delivery.