Wheat Falls to 3-Week Low

Wheat fell towards $7.12 per bushel, the lowest level in three weeks, as renewed hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire raised expectations of reduced disruption to Black Sea grain shipments. US President Donald Trump announced a truce on strikes on Russia and Ukraine's energy facilities. Also, Turkey is seeking to broker a broader agreement between Kyiv and Moscow that could stop attacks on ships in the Black Sea. Ukraine has indicated it would support such a deal if Russia agrees, while the Kremlin has described the proposal positively. The prospect of improved trade flows has added pressure to wheat prices, which remain below the 3½-year high of $7.67 reached on August 28. Meanwhile, the latest USDA forecasts pointed to slightly above-average global wheat inventories. The agency also lowered its 2026/27 export forecasts for Russia by 3 million metric tons to 43 million tons and for Ukraine by 1 million tons to 12.5 million tons

Wheat fluctuated around $7.30 per bushel, remaining below the 3-1/2-year high of $7.67 reached on August 28, as traders assessed developments in the Russia-Ukraine war and renewed diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. Hopes for a negotiated settlement have weighed on prices, while the latest USDA supply and demand report pointed to slightly higher-than-expected global ending stocks, encouraging profit-taking among investors holding large long positions. However, the USDA also lowered its 2026/27 export forecasts for Russia and Ukraine, cutting Russian shipments by 3 million metric tons to 43 million tons and Ukrainian exports by 1 million tons to 12.5 million tons. Escalating attacks on shipping have added to supply concerns. Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell 61.9% year-on-year to 2 million tons in August, while shipments through Azov and Black Sea ports dropped 73.1% to 1.3 million tons, highlighting growing disruption in the region.

Wheat fell to $7.10 a bushel, their lowest level in two weeks, as traders weighed diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine against continued disruption to Black Sea exports. Profit-taking following a strong rally also contributed to the decline. Prices had reached $7.70 on August 28, marking a three-and-a-half-year high, before easing. Ukraine struck targets at the Russian port of Novorossiysk, including a naval base and an oil-loading terminal, renewing concerns over disruptions to Black Sea trade. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the attack targeted several facilities, while traders cited unconfirmed reports that grain infrastructure may also have been damaged. However, attention shifted back to diplomacy after the Kremlin said it hoped US-mediated talks would resume soon and identified Abu Dhabi as its preferred venue for negotiations. The prospect of renewed talks helped ease some of the market’s supply concerns.