Wheat Prices Plunge as USDA Boosts Global Stock Forecast

Wheat decreased to 595.00 USd/Bu, the lowest since April 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Wheat lost 5.34%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 9.69%.

Wheat futures fell below $6 per bushel in early June, hitting their lowest level in over a month as uncertainty surrounding a US-China trade agreement weighed on sentiment. The decline followed China's refusal to endorse the Trump administration's claim that Beijing would purchase at least $17 billion worth of US agricultural products annually through 2028, with China's Commerce Ministry stating that the two countries had only agreed on a "guiding target" to expand agricultural trade. Adding further pressure, favorable weather conditions across key US growing regions boosted yield prospects as the winter wheat harvest got underway. Elsewhere, recent rainfall across large swaths of previously parched farmland in Australia encouraged late wheat sowing, supporting production expectations. In China, heavy and persistent rainfall across major wheat-growing regions affected crop conditions, though the weather was largely anticipated and any damage was expected to be limited.

Wheat futures slipped to around $6.60 per bushel in mid-May, as investors took profits following a recent surge driven by China’s expanded commitment to purchasing US agricultural goods. Under the agreement reached after high-level talks between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, China pledged to import at least $17 billion annually in US agricultural products through 2028. The deal builds on existing soybean purchase arrangements and is expected to have spillover effects that could also support demand for other commodities, including wheat. However, farmers continue to face cost pressures, with recent increases in fuel and fertilizer prices, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, raising production costs and adding volatility to the broader agricultural outlook.