Wheat Pulls Back from 8-Month Highs

2026-02-24 13:32 By Felipe Alarcon 1 min. read

Wheat futures pulled back to below $5.7 per bushel after reaching the highest in 8 months on February 20th as the market recalibrated against an encroaching wall of physical supply and shifting macroeconomic hurdles.

The initial risk premium, built on Black Sea frost threats and US Plains drought, is dissolving as weather models now forecast favorable precipitation for the hard red winter wheat belt, paring earlier crop-loss fears.

Simultaneously, the global supply balance is shifting toward abundance following India’s release of a 2.5 million-ton export quota, Argentina’s record 28 million-ton harvest, and upgraded Russian production forecasts climbing toward 91 million metric tons.

This influx of grain enters a market increasingly concerned by the US administration's 15% global tariff announcement, which threatens to trigger retaliatory trade barriers.

Consequently, despite robust weekly export inspections running 19% ahead of last year, futures failed to hold onto multi-month highs.



News Stream
Wheat Pulls Back from 8-Month Highs
Wheat futures pulled back to below $5.7 per bushel after reaching the highest in 8 months on February 20th as the market recalibrated against an encroaching wall of physical supply and shifting macroeconomic hurdles. The initial risk premium, built on Black Sea frost threats and US Plains drought, is dissolving as weather models now forecast favorable precipitation for the hard red winter wheat belt, paring earlier crop-loss fears. Simultaneously, the global supply balance is shifting toward abundance following India’s release of a 2.5 million-ton export quota, Argentina’s record 28 million-ton harvest, and upgraded Russian production forecasts climbing toward 91 million metric tons. This influx of grain enters a market increasingly concerned by the US administration's 15% global tariff announcement, which threatens to trigger retaliatory trade barriers. Consequently, despite robust weekly export inspections running 19% ahead of last year, futures failed to hold onto multi-month highs.
2026-02-24
Wheat Rebounds on Renewed Supply Risks
Wheat futures rebounded above $5.7 per bushel, reaching the highest in 8 months as renewed weather concerns in the Black Sea region offset the broader weight of ample global supplies. Fresh frost risks across parts of southern Russia and Ukraine have reintroduced a weather risk premium into the market, with traders reassessing potential winter crop damage after earlier US winterkill fears faded. While Russia’s upgraded production outlook of 85.9 million tons from SovEcon and near 91 million tons from IKAR, along with India’s approval of 2.5 million tons in exports and Argentina’s near-record harvest continue to signal comfortable global availability, the market is reacting to uncertainty around crop conditions and export flows. At the same time, currency movements and signs of steady US export demand are providing additional support.
2026-02-18
Wheat Futures Fall from 3-Month High
Wheat futures fell below $5.4 per bushel, pulling back from a three month high near $5.5 on February 12, as improving global supply expectations and cooling weather risks in the United States pressured prices. Higher production forecasts from Russia weighed on the market after Sovecon raised its 2026 harvest outlook to 85.9 million tons and IKAR projected output near 91 million tons, both pointing to ample export availability. Also, India allowed the export of 2.5 million tons of wheat to support farmers following strong harvests, injecting fresh liquidity into the international market just as Argentina moves a record harvest of nearly 28 million tons. Domestically, earlier fears regarding winterkill in the US Plains have largely dissipated as temperatures moderated, allowing traders to unwind risk premiums.
2026-02-17