Wheat Pulls Back from 8-Month Highs

2026-02-24 13:32 By Felipe Alarcon 1 min. read

Wheat futures pulled back to below $5.7 per bushel after reaching the highest in 8 months on February 20th as the market recalibrated against an encroaching wall of physical supply and shifting macroeconomic hurdles.

The initial risk premium, built on Black Sea frost threats and US Plains drought, is dissolving as weather models now forecast favorable precipitation for the hard red winter wheat belt, paring earlier crop-loss fears.

Simultaneously, the global supply balance is shifting toward abundance following India’s release of a 2.5 million-ton export quota, Argentina’s record 28 million-ton harvest, and upgraded Russian production forecasts climbing toward 91 million metric tons.

This influx of grain enters a market increasingly concerned by the US administration's 15% global tariff announcement, which threatens to trigger retaliatory trade barriers.

Consequently, despite robust weekly export inspections running 19% ahead of last year, futures failed to hold onto multi-month highs.



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