UK Natural Gas Prices Extend Gain

UK natural gas prices fell to 161 pence per therm on Monday but remained near multi-year highs, as investors awaited details of a US plan to economically isolate Iran that could further disrupt energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. Treasury Secretary Bessent is scheduled to hold a press conference later today and has threatened to impose “the toughest sanctions in history” on Iran. This follows President Trump’s threat last week to impose sanctions on countries that continue trading with Tehran. Iran, however, dismissed the threats as a sign of desperation, saying the new sanctions would fail to defeat Tehran. For Europe, concerns over gas inventories are becoming increasingly pressing, as ongoing tensions between the two sides have kept the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, delaying Qatari LNG deliveries to Europe. This, combined with heatwave-driven cooling demand, has slowed the pace of inventory replenishment, leaving European storage levels under greater pressure ahead of winter.

UK natural gas prices held above 161 pence per therm on Friday, the highest level since January 2023, as the stalemate in the US-Iran conflict muddied the outlook for Gulf LNG supplies. The two sides continued to clash over the Strait of Hormuz, with the conflict entering a new phase of economic pressure. Traders are concerned about Europe’s readiness for the upcoming winter as the maritime blockade has stranded Qatari LNG cargoes, forcing European utilities into more intense and costly competition with Asian buyers for available cargoes. Heatwave-driven demand for cooling is also limiting gas injections into storage. Europe's storage levels are at just 62%, the lowest seasonal level in records dating back to 2009, leaving the region with limited time to replenish inventories before the heating season begins. Despite this, the European Commission said that gas supplies in the bloc are not immediately at risk. UK gas prices have risen more than 6% this week.

UK natural gas prices rose toward 157 pence per therm on Thursday, recouping the previous session’s losses as restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to raise concerns over global LNG supplies. President Donald Trump vowed on Wednesday to impose “tremendous punishment” on countries that help or do business with Iran, ramping up economic pressure on Tehran to reopen the critical waterway. His threats came a day after he said there were no ongoing talks and that the naval blockade of Iran remained in force, while Tehran maintained that the waterway remained closed. The blockade has halted Qatari LNG deliveries, forcing European utilities to compete aggressively for available cargoes. Reduced LNG inflows, combined with heatwave-driven cooling demand, have slowed Europe’s seasonal gas storage injections. This has amplified concerns that Europe could enter the winter heating season with insufficient reserves, keeping upward pressure on gas prices.