UK Natural Gas Futures Rebound from 7-Week Low

UK natural gas futures climbed above 105 pence per therm, rebounding from a seven-week low of 97.11 reached on April 17, as markets focus on potential US-Iran talks ahead of a fragile ceasefire deadline. Iran has yet to confirm participation in negotiations in Pakistan, with disagreements persisting over key issues including access to the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has already triggered a global energy crisis that could worsen if tensions escalate again. President Donald Trump said Vice President JD Vance is ready to attend talks but warned the US will not rush a deal and could resume military action if needed. The near closure of Hormuz has disrupted about a fifth of global LNG supply, though weaker demand from Asia has eased some pressure. National Gas said domestic inventories should be sufficient to meet summer demand and may even support exports to Europe.

UK natural gas futures dropped more than 2% back below 100 pence per therm on Tuesday, reversing Monday’s gains amid prospects of continued US-Iran peace talks. Reports suggest Iran is set to participate in a second round of negotiations with the US in Islamabad after earlier expressing hesitation about taking part. Still, there remains uncertainty as President Trump indicated he is unlikely to extend the two-week ceasefire, which is set to expire on Wednesday, and reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until a deal is reached. The conflict has already disrupted around one-fifth of global LNG flows, although softer demand from Asia has helped reduce competition for cargoes. Also, National Gas recently indicated that domestic stocks should be sufficient to cover summer demand and could allow some exports to mainland Europe.

UK natural gas futures jumped over 5% back above 100 pence a therm on Monday, recovering part of Friday’s decline after the Strait of Hormuz was closed once again, reigniting concerns over disruptions to energy flows from the Persian Gulf. The renewed blockade followed Iran’s reversal of its earlier position, citing “repeated breaches of trust” by the US regarding the ceasefire. Tensions escalated further after the US intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged vessel, prompting Tehran to launch drone strikes toward some US military vessel and warn that ships attempting to pass the waterway would be attacked. The conflict has already disrupted around one-fifth of global LNG flows, although softer demand from Asia has helped reduce competition for cargoes. Also, National Gas recently indicated that domestic stocks should be sufficient to cover summer demand and could allow some exports to mainland Europe.