UK Natural Gas Prices Advance

UK natural gas futures rose toward 118 pence per therm on Thursday after a more than 15% decline in the previous session, as the two-week ceasefire in the Middle East appeared to be in jeopardy following Israeli strikes on Lebanon. The latest attack prompted Iran to again halt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a violation of the day-old ceasefire and kept up strikes on Gulf states. The situation is complicated by disagreements between Tehran and the US-Israeli side over whether the ceasefire terms extend to Lebanon. Meanwhile, Qatar is reportedly mobilizing engineers and workers to restart production at the world’s largest LNG export plant, which has been offline since early March after Iranian strikes cut significant capacity. Some output could resume in the coming days, but a return to substantial production would require safe passage for ships through the Strait.

UK natural gas futures tumbled more than 15% to around 114 pence per therm on Wednesday, their lowest level in over a month, after the US and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement came less than two hours before President Donald Trump’s deadline, after which he had promised to wipe out a “whole civilization.” Iran stated safe passage through the strait would be “possible” via coordination with its armed forces, while Trump noted progress in negotiations, highlighting a 10-point proposal from Tehran that he described as a “workable basis” for a longer-term peace framework. The temporary pause offers both sides a window to negotiate a longer agreement to end the six-week-old war, which has severely disrupted global energy flows. Traffic through the strait has dropped sharply since the conflict began in late February, while roughly 20% of global LNG supply from Qatar remains cut off.

UK natural gas futures climbed above 130 pence per therm, as US President Donald Trump intensified threats to destroy key Iranian infrastructure if his conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz are not met by his 8 p.m. Eastern Time deadline. Trump warned that US forces could demolish “every bridge in Iran by midnight tomorrow” and render power plants “burning, exploding, and never to be used again.” He stressed that freedom of navigation through the Strait must be part of any agreement, calling its reopening “a very big priority.” The UK is particularly exposed due to limited storage and high import reliance. Iran has threatened retaliation, which could further tighten global energy supplies. Most Middle East LNG usually goes to Asia, but restrictions have intensified competition for the limited global pool. Traders report that Iran has blocked all LNG carriers from passing through the strait, leaving about one-fifth of global LNG supply offline.