UK Natural Gas Market Remains Subdued

UK natural gas futures rose above 116 pence per therm, rebounding from a more than two-week low, as conflicting signals from the US and Iran clouded expectations for a potential agreement. Iranian media reported progress on a draft deal aimed at ending the war, though the White House later dismissed the claim as “a complete fabrication.” Fresh US strikes on a military facility and other targets near the Strait of Hormuz also underscored risks to negotiations. Traffic through the Strait has been at a near-standstill, disrupting roughly one-fifth of global LNG supplies and complicating Europe’s efforts to replenish relatively low gas storage levels ahead of winter. Record-breaking heat across the UK have added a layer of short-term demand uncertainty.

UK natural gas futures fell to around 112.3 pence per therm, the lowest level in more than two weeks, as traders assessed the back-and-forth developments surrounding a potential deal between the US and Iran. The US military reportedly carried out fresh strikes against Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, which a military spokesperson described as acts of self-defense. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also noted that negotiations would take a few days as both sides continue discussions over the wording of the initial document. Earlier, President Donald Trump stated that talks were “proceeding nicely,” but warned of more attacks if talks failed. Although most gas from the Persian Gulf goes to Asia, the disruption has tightened global supply and intensified competition, fueling concerns in Europe as the region needs to replenish inventories before next winter.

UK natural gas futures dropped below 120 pence per therm but remained close to a six-week high, amid persistent uncertainty over the duration of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Diplomatic efforts for a peace deal between the US and Iran remained stalled, keeping tensions elevated around the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are closely monitoring shifting signals from President Donald Trump regarding fresh strikes against Tehran, which has raised concerns about a potential resumption of active hostilities. Roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply has been disrupted since the conflict began in late February, with the escalation also affecting key LNG production assets in Qatar. This has heightened concerns in Europe, as the region works to replenish gas storage ahead of next winter.