UK Natural Gas Market Remains Subdued

UK natural gas prices dropped 3% to around 96.8 pence a therm, the lowest since February 27, as an interim US–Iran agreement is now in effect after both sides signed the memorandum remotely. Pakistan's prime minister said the signing means Iran will “instantly reopen” the Strait of Hormuz and the US will “immediately lift” its naval blockade on all Iranian ports. The deal also includes the permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and initiates a 60-day negotiating period to reach a final agreement on the future of Iran's nuclear program, although Trump warned he would restart the war if Tehran fails to comply with the terms of the 14-point memorandum of understanding. In anticipation of the strait's imminent reopening, a handful of vessels have started returning to the Middle East, including tankers from Qatar, the world's second-largest LNG exporter.

UK natural gas prices fell to around 98 pence a therm, the lowest since April 17, as markets awaited further details on a US-Iran deal that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The interim accord is set to be signed in Switzerland on June 19, though the memorandum of understanding has not yet been released. President Donald Trump reiterated on Monday that the strategic waterway would be fully accessible by Friday and operate "toll-free." The prospect of restored maritime traffic through the strait has significantly eased concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil and gas flows from the Persian Gulf. However, uncertainty remains over how quickly regional production can recover, particularly after extensive damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan complex, the world's largest LNG export facility. Meanwhile, forecasts of hot weather across Europe next week are expected to boost gas consumption.

UK natural gas prices fell more than 5% to around 106 pence per therm, marking the lowest level in five weeks as a peace deal has been reached between the US and Iran. Officials from both nations confirmed that they had agreed on a framework to end hostilities, lift the US blockade on Iranian ports, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG trade. The official signing ceremony will take place on June 19 in Switzerland. The reopening of the strait would resume LNG flows from the Persian Gulf, easing supply concerns that have kept gas prices in Europe and Asia elevated for more than three months.