Sugar Hits 19-month High

Sugar increased to 21.28 USd/Lbs, the highest since February 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar gained 18.01%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 34.94%.

US sugar futures were above 20 cents per pound, their highest level since February 2025, as unfavorable weather conditions in major producing countries raised concerns about global production. In Brazil, rains have delayed cane crushing in the Centre-South region and are expected to reduce sugar output this season. A significant portion of the sugarcane crop could be left to be crushed during the next harvest season, potentially extending the current crushing season into late February or early March. The El Niño weather event is also expected to weigh on production. In India, a weak monsoon could curb yields, while scorching summer temperatures in Europe are expected to result in the worst sugar-beet harvest in more than a decade. In Thailand, drought conditions in key sugar-producing regions are also threatening production. Sugar prices have risen more than 8% so far in October and are up around 40% since July.

US sugar futures traded near 19 per pound, close to their highest since April 2025, amid growing supply concerns. While current supplies remain ample, the outlook is tightening rapidly as El Niño raises the risk of a deficit in the new season. Sugar is particularly exposed, with production concentrated in Brazil, India and Thailand, where weather risks are already mounting. StoneX recently projected a global sugar deficit of 900,000 tons in 2026/27, with several major producers expected to see lower output, including Thailand, India and the European Union. Thai production is expected to fall by at least 17% to below 10 million tons, while below-normal monsoon rainfall is raising concerns over India’s cane yields. In Europe, extreme summer heat is weighing on the sugar-beet crop, with output expected to decline by 19%. Meanwhile, wetter-than-normal conditions in Brazil’s Center-South are delaying harvesting and crushing, limiting mills’ ability to increase sugar production.