Sugar Futures Remain High

US sugar futures traded near 19 per pound, close to their highest since April 2025, amid growing supply concerns. While current supplies remain ample, the outlook is tightening rapidly as El Niño raises the risk of a deficit in the new season. Sugar is particularly exposed, with production concentrated in Brazil, India and Thailand, where weather risks are already mounting. StoneX recently projected a global sugar deficit of 900,000 tons in 2026/27, with several major producers expected to see lower output, including Thailand, India and the European Union. Thai production is expected to fall by at least 17% to below 10 million tons, while below-normal monsoon rainfall is raising concerns over India’s cane yields. In Europe, extreme summer heat is weighing on the sugar-beet crop, with output expected to decline by 19%. Meanwhile, wetter-than-normal conditions in Brazil’s Center-South are delaying harvesting and crushing, limiting mills’ ability to increase sugar production.

Sugar increased to 19.11 USd/Lbs, the highest since April 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar gained 6.81%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 17.93%.

US sugar futures traded above 18 cents per pound, holding close to their highest since April 2025, amid lingering concerns over the supply outlook. Weather disruptions in Asia and Europe are tightening the global outlook, with recent estimates pointing to a potential deficit in 2026/27. Thai sugar production is expected to fall by at least 17% , while below-normal monsoon rainfall in India is adding to concerns over output. The European Union Sugar Market Observatory also reported recently that the bloc's production in the 2026/27 crop year is expected to fall by 19%. El Niño poses an additional risk to global sugar production, with a strong event potentially bringing drier conditions to major producers. In top producer Brazil, the outlook hinges on weather in the key Center-South region and how sugarcane is allocated between sugar and ethanol. According to a recent Itaú BBA analysis of Secex data, Brazil sugar shipments fell 33% yoy in August, while ethanol exports surged 37%.