Sugar Futures Spike to 1-Month Highs

US sugar futures fell to around 14.6 US cents, the lowest since late April, weighed down by the dollar's strength and increased supply from top producer Brazil. Ongoing sugarcane crushing in the Center-South region is further boosting physical availability and pressuring prices. Meanwhile, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its estimate of the 2025/26 global surplus, projecting record production of 182 million tons, up 3.5% from the previous season, and a surplus of 2.2 million tons versus a prior forecast of 1.22 million, reversing a 3.46 million-ton deficit in 2024/25.The outlook for 2026/27 is tighter, with production forecast to decline 1.15% to 180 million tons and a potential 262,000-ton deficit, partly due to potential El Niño impacts on key producers India and Thailand. The brokerage firm Czarnikow, however, sees a modest 1.4 million-ton surplus, driven by stronger Chinese production.

Sugar futures in the US traded slightly above 15 US cents, the highest in a week, reflecting concerns over the upcoming season and expectations of increased demand for biofuels. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) new estimates indicated a larger 2025/26 global sugar surplus of 2.244 million tons, compared with 1.22 million previously. However, it projected global sugar production in 2026/27 to fall 1.15% year-on-year to 180 MMT, resulting in a 262,000 MT deficit, citing potential El Niño-driven disruptions in India and Thailand. Ethanol production is forecast to rise from 123.1 to 129.4 billion litres in 2026, supported by a recovery in Brazil and expansion in India, with consumption at 126.9 billion litres, still below output. Meanwhile, Brazil’s fuel subsidies to offset higher gasoline and diesel prices from the Iran conflict are expected to support ethanol, potentially shifting sugar mills toward ethanol production.

Sugar futures in the US eased toward 14.7 US cents, the lowest in over a week, pressured by expectations of robust Brazilian supply. According to StoneX, the Central-South region, the country's main sugarcane producing hub, is expected to register the second largest harvest in history in the 2026/27 season, which began in April, amid better weather conditions compared to last year. The consulting firm estimates a milling volume of 632.2 million tons, above the forecast released in March of 620.5 million tons, and also higher than the volume of the 2025/26 harvest, which was 621.9 million tons. However, forecasts from multiple consulting firms pointing to a global deficit in the 2026/27 crop, along with India’s decision to ban sugar exports for at least four months due to supply concerns, limited the downside. The market also remained attentive to climate risks, including the El Nino phenomenon, and oil price volatility, which continues to directly affect the sugar and ethanol sectors.