Sugar Futures at 2020-Lows

Sugar futures in the US eased toward 14 cents per pound, the lowest since October 2020, as the market remains pressured by oversupply due to good growing conditions for sugarcane and sugar beet in several producing regions. The prospect of a large global surplus in the 2025/26 crop year keeps the pressure on prices, with increased production in India and Thailand, particularly of white sugar, while global consumption is expected to remain stable. Market observers expect another surplus in the 2026/27 season, albeit smaller, as top producer Brazil is expected to have a bumper harvest. Copersucar expects Brazil's sugarcane harvest to increase to 620 million tons, up from 608 million tons in the current season.

Sugar decreased to 14.00 USd/Lbs, the lowest since October 2020. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar lost 5.51%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 28.87%.

Sugar futures in the US rose to around 14.6 cents per pound, rebounding from recent three-month lows of 14.3, as traders weighed the prospect of a smaller global surplus in the coming season. Claudiu Covrig, lead agriculture analyst at Covrig Analytics, told the Dubai Sugar Conference that the global surplus is forecast to narrow to 1.4 million metric tons in the 2026/27 season, down sharply from 4.7 million in 2025/26, on subdued exports from top grower India. Meanwhile, sugar production in Brazil’s key Centre-South region is expected to edge higher to 40.9 million metric tons in 2026/27, from 40.77 million in 2025/26, according to Brazil-based Datagro. On January 30, StoneX said it expects the 2025/26 global sugar market to end with a 2.9-million-ton surplus, down 800,000 tons from its November forecast. This reverses the 3.14-million-ton deficit recorded in the previous cycle and reinforces expectations of a well-supplied market over the near term.