Soybean Futures Near August Lows

2026-10-13 08:26 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

Soybean prices fell to $12.8, hovering near their lowest level since late August, as ample US supplies and uncertainty over Chinese demand weighed on prices.

In its latest report released Friday, the US Department of Agriculture forecast soybean production to rise 7% year-on-year to 4.562 billion bushels in the 2026–27 marketing year, exceeding market expectations of 4.534 billion bushels.

Meanwhile, investors remain cautious as top importer China has yet to make significant purchases following a weeklong national holiday.

Beijing has reportedly made progress towards its pledge to purchase at least 25 million tonnes of US soybeans annually through 2028, under a trade truce agreed with Washington last year.

However, large purchases have yet to materialize since China’s national holiday ended last Wednesday, according to traders familiar with the matter.

With supply remaining abundant, Chinese demand is likely to be a key factor in determining the near-term direction of soybean prices.



News Stream
Soybean Futures Near August Lows
Soybean prices fell to $12.8, hovering near their lowest level since late August, as ample US supplies and uncertainty over Chinese demand weighed on prices. In its latest report released Friday, the US Department of Agriculture forecast soybean production to rise 7% year-on-year to 4.562 billion bushels in the 2026–27 marketing year, exceeding market expectations of 4.534 billion bushels. Meanwhile, investors remain cautious as top importer China has yet to make significant purchases following a weeklong national holiday. Beijing has reportedly made progress towards its pledge to purchase at least 25 million tonnes of US soybeans annually through 2028, under a trade truce agreed with Washington last year. However, large purchases have yet to materialize since China’s national holiday ended last Wednesday, according to traders familiar with the matter. With supply remaining abundant, Chinese demand is likely to be a key factor in determining the near-term direction of soybean prices.
2026-10-13
Soybean Futures Hit 6-Week Low
Soybean futures fell below $12.8 per bushel, hitting a six-week low as expectations for a record-large US crop and active harvesting weighed on prices. The USDA raised its 2026 soybean production forecast to 4.562 billion bushels from 4.535 billion in September, above expectations of 4.534 billion, while lifting its average yield estimate to 53.1 bushels per acre from 52.8. Mostly dry weather across the Midwest is allowing farmers to accelerate harvesting, with the USDA’s weekly crop progress report due Tuesday. Meanwhile, Brazil’s soybean planting is advancing at a record pace, with favorable rainfall supporting fieldwork. Traders are now monitoring potential Chinese demand following recent talks between Trump and Xi Jinping, although punitive Chinese tariffs continue to discourage private buyers. China also lowered its 2026/27 soybean production forecast to 20.36 million tonnes but kept its import outlook at 95.5 million tonnes, well below the USDA’s 115 million-tonne estimate.
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Soybeans Fall on Higher US Supply Outlook
Soybean futures fell below $12.9 per bushel, reaching a one-week low as the USDA's latest report pointed to a more abundant US supply outlook for the 2026/27 season. The agency raised its soybean yield estimate to 53.1 bushels per acre from 52.8 in September, lifting projected production to 4.56 billion bushels from 4.535 billion. US ending stocks were also revised higher to 315 million bushels from 310 million, adding to concerns over ample supplies. However, the USDA increased its export forecast by 10 million bushels, providing some offset to the bearish outlook, while its season-average farm price estimate remained unchanged at $12 per bushel. Meanwhile, China's Agriculture Ministry cut its 2026/27 soybean output forecast by 590,000 tonnes to 20.36 million tonnes in its October outlook, citing lower-than-expected planted area and yields. The reduction, alongside higher production costs and rising global prices, supported new-crop soybean prices in China.
2026-10-12