Soybean Prices Extend Decline

Soybean futures fell below $11.90 per bushel, retreating further from recent two-year highs as uncertainty over global trade and geopolitical developments weighed on prices. A potential US–Iran peace deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore flows of fuel and fertilizers critical for crop production is seen as supportive for agricultural supply, potentially boosting global grain output. However, crude oil prices rebounded on reports of fresh US strikes in southern Iran, reinforcing biofuel-related demand. Elsewhere, doubts over a US–China trade agreement weighed on prices, after Beijing did not confirm the Trump administration’s claim that it had committed to purchasing at least $17 billion in US agricultural products annually through 2028, alongside existing soybean pledges. China’s Ministry of Commerce said the two sides had only agreed on a “guiding target” to expand agricultural trade, without referencing the $17 billion figure.

Soybean futures declined to below $11.9 per bushel, retreating from recent two-year highs, as doubts surrounding a US-China trade agreement weighed on prices. The drop followed China's failure to confirm the Trump administration's assertion that Beijing had committed to purchasing at least $17 billion in US agricultural products annually through 2028, in addition to its current soybean pledges. Prices had surged last week after the White House announced the deal, which came after discussions between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing. However, China’s Ministry of Commerce stated that the two countries had merely established a “guiding target” to increase agricultural trade, without mentioning the $17 billion figure. While US farmers welcomed the potential demand boost, they still face pressure from low crop prices, high production costs, Trump’s tariffs, and rising fertilizer expenses tied to the Middle East conflict.

Soybean futures steadied around $12 per bushel following a recent surge on May 18, after new details emerged from Donald Trump’s two-day summit in China regarding agricultural trade commitments. The White House said that China agreed to purchase at least $17 billion worth of US agricultural products annually through 2028, intended to supplement earlier soybean purchase agreements. After Trump’s meeting with President Xi last year, China had initially committed to buying 12 million metric tons of soybeans, alongside a broader pledge to purchase 25 million tons annually for three years. While the announcement was largely welcomed by US farmers seeking clearer demand signals following the summit, they still face persistent pressure from relatively low crop prices and elevated production costs in recent years. These challenges have been further intensified by Trump’s tariffs and rising fertilizer costs linked to the broader conflict in the Middle East.