Soybean Prices Near Two-Year High

Soybean futures climbed back above $12 per bushel, reaching their highest level since May 2024, as elevated energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty continued to support oilseeds. Investors remain focused on the disruptions caused by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Crude oil resumed its rally despite the International Energy Agency approving its largest-ever release of emergency reserves. While some market participants hope for a quick resolution to the conflict and a resumption of fuel and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned of an intense day of strikes, and recent Iranian attempts to mine the Strait suggest continued disruption. Amid these tensions, attention shifted away from ample global grain supplies, pushing soybean prices to multi-year highs, while traders largely dismissed an uneventful WASDE report released Tuesday.

Soybean futures retreated to around $11.70 per bushel after briefly hitting a nearly three-year high in early March, tracking a decline in crude oil prices following President Trump’s comments that the ongoing Middle East conflict may be nearing an end. Soybean prices had climbed on Monday as rising energy costs often ripple through agricultural markets, with crops like soybeans and corn widely used in biofuel production and attracting flows from commodity funds. Meanwhile, US soybean ending stocks are expected to fall 6 million bushels to 344 million, according to the WASDE report. Brazil’s soybean production is also forecast slightly lower at 179.06 million tons, down about 1 million tons. Export inspections showed 879,190 tons of soybeans shipped in the week ending March 5, down 24% from last week. China received 411,462 tons, Egypt 161,746 tons, and Indonesia 118,747 tons.

Soybean futures climbed above $12 per bushel in early March, advancing for the third straight session and hitting their highest level since May 2024, driven by a surge in soybean oil that lifted the broader soy complex. The oil jumped over 4% after Middle East tensions disrupted fuel supplies, increasing its use for biodiesel and raising concerns of tightening agricultural availability. Comments from Qatar’s energy minister added to market jitters, warning that Gulf producers could halt exports within weeks, potentially pushing crude oil toward $150 per barrel. Rising energy prices often ripple through agricultural markets, as crops like soybeans and corn are widely used in biofuel production and attract flows from commodity funds. Meanwhile, farmers in Brazil are harvesting a record soybean crop, which could temper China’s demand for US supplies, even as global tensions keep markets on edge.