Soybeans Hits 19-month High

Soybeans increased to 1165.00 USd/Bu, the highest since July 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Soybeans gained 9.51%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 16.31%.

Soybean futures rose to around $11.5 per bushel, the highest in three months, as Chinese buyers returned after the Lunar New Year, reviving optimism for large-scale exports. Support comes from the "Busan Truce," a trade agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi reportedly setting a 20-million-metric-ton purchase target for the year. However, gains are limited by tariff uncertainty and shifts in US policy after the Supreme Court struck down sweeping tariffs, raising fears that additional 8-million-ton purchases may be canceled. Pressure also comes from a record Brazilian harvest, projected at 180 million metric tons, with prices well below US values. Traders now watch whether China will make “goodwill” purchases ahead of a planned April summit to support market levels.

Soybean futures fell to $11.3 per bushel, pulling back from the three-month high of $11.4 reached on February 19, as tariff uncertainty hurt sentiment on US export prospects to China. Policy shifts by Donald Trump after the Supreme Court struck down his sweeping tariffs reduced expectations that China would follow through on an additional 8 million metric tons purchase he had promoted. China has already bought 12 million metric tons under an October trade truce, meeting prior commitments. With US soybeans still priced above Brazilian supplies and a large harvest underway in Brazil lowering costs, analysts question China’s incentive to secure further US cargoes without tariff pressure, limiting upside potential.