Soybeans Retreat as Market Eyes China Target

Soybean futures fell around $12.40 per bushel, hitting a nearly nine-week low as Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s reelection raised concerns over US competitiveness in China’s soybean market. Lula’s emphasis on pragmatic engagement with Beijing could strengthen trade ties and reinforce Brazil’s position as China’s leading soybean supplier, potentially eroding the US share of the world’s largest import market. Brazil accounted for nearly 80% of China’s soybean imports in the first nine months of 2026, despite Beijing’s trade deal with Washington. Brazilian agricultural exports have gained wider access to China under Lula, while Chinese investment in port infrastructure has strengthened the country’s ability to ship supplies. Meanwhile, continued US harvest progress added pressure, despite strong export demand. US soybean sales reached 2.84 million tonnes in the week ended October 15, up sharply from 574,878 tonnes a week ago, with China accounting for 2.18 million tonnes.

Soybean futures rose toward $12.6 per bushel, rebounding from a two-month low reached on October 21, as strong export demand led by China helped end an eight-session losing streak. The USDA reported 2.84 million metric tons of net US soybean export sales for the 2026/27 marketing year in the week ended October 15, sharply above 574,900 tons a week earlier. China accounted for 2.18 million tons, while export shipments climbed 75% week over week to 2.02 million tons, up 88% from the four-week average. A separate USDA announcement also confirmed a sale of 202,000 tons to China. Still, futures remained on track for a second consecutive weekly loss as the advancing US harvest and expectations for a large crop continued to weigh on prices. The USDA projects US soybean production at 4.56 billion bushels for the 2026/27 marketing year. However, analysts suggested harvest-related pressure was easing as fieldwork neared completion.

Soybean futures edged down below $12.5 per bushel, reaching their lowest level in eight weeks as investors trimmed bullish bets amid advancing US harvesting and favorable weather forecasts for the Midwest. Recent rains stalled fieldwork in parts of the Midwest, but drier weather forecasted through the end of the week is expected to allow farmers to gather what is projected to be a record-large soybean crop. US farmers now harvested 64% of the soybean crop, according to the USDA’s weekly crop progress report. The harvest pressure continued to outweigh renewed Chinese demand as the USDA confirmed more sales from China. The world's top soy importer has now purchased over 60% of its 25-million-ton US soybean buying target for the 2026/27 marketing year, under the trade deal reached between the two countries. Elsewhere, farmers in Brazil had planted 26% of the projected area of their 2026/27 soybean crop as of last week, up from 15% a week earlier and above the 24% registered a year ago.