Rubber Futures at Over 1-Month Low

Rubber futures traded around 249 US cents per kilogram, their lowest since September 24, pressured by lower oil prices, which make synthetic rubber cheaper and reduce the relative appeal of natural rubber. On the supply side, heavy rainfall in key rubber-producing areas of southern Thailand added to existing concerns over disruptions to tapping activities and short-term supply. Rainfall has also affected northern Thailand, although conditions have been comparatively less severe. As the world's largest natural rubber producer, Thailand plays a crucial role in global supply, amplifying the market's sensitivity to weather-related disruptions. El Niño-related weather conditions also continued to affect cup-lump quality and production, while raw-material shortages in Indonesia added to supply constraints.

Rubber futures rose to around 255 US cents per kilogram, not far from their highest level since 2013, reached in mid-October, as persistent supply concerns supported prices. Heavy rainfall and flash-flood warnings across southern Thailand threatened to disrupt tapping activity, potentially limiting latex collection in key producing areas. El Niño-related weather conditions also continued to affect cup-lump quality and production, while raw-material shortages in Indonesia added to supply constraints. Meanwhile, improving rainfall in northern Thailand has allowed farmers to gradually resume tapping, supporting a recovery in output and providing some relief from earlier disruptions. However, gains were capped by lower crude oil prices, which made petroleum-based synthetic rubber more competitive and potentially diverted demand away from natural rubber.

Rubber futures traded around 256 US cents per kilogram, hovering near their lowest since early October. The supply outlook has improved as rainfall eased in Thailand ahead of the fourth-quarter peak production season, raising expectations that tapping activity will recover from recent disruptions caused by heavy rain and flooding. Greater raw-material availability could relieve supply tightness and ease raw material prices, if favorable weather conditions persist. Looking ahead, the expected persistence of the El Niño phenomenon through February 2027 poses a major risk to production. Meanwhile, persistently weak tyre demand from China, the world’s largest rubber consumer, also weighed on prices. Elevated oil prices helped limit the downside by raising the cost of petroleum-based synthetic rubber, making natural rubber relatively more competitive.