Rubber Futures Ease

Rubber futures traded around 250 US cents per kilogram, slightly retreating from their highest level since early 2013, as profit-taking and weak tyre demand weighed on prices. Chinese tyre manufacturers extended production halts amid persistent losses, reducing short-term demand for natural rubber as factories cut tyre output ahead of the holidays. Nevertheless, losses were limited by supply concerns, with Thailand’s natural rubber exports down 10% year-on-year to 1.62 million tonnes in the first eight months of 2026. Supply recovery outside China has also remained sluggish after prolonged rainfall disrupted major producing areas, while warehouse receipts for domestic rubber futures continued to decline and remained below year-ago levels. Rising oil prices also offered some support as they lifted synthetic rubber costs and boosted demand for natural rubber as a substitute.

Rubber futures held above 250 US cents per kilogram, near their highest level since early 2013, driven by firm raw material prices and persistent supply concerns. Supply worries intensified after congestion at Abidjan port disrupted shipments from key producer Ivory Coast. In Thailand, rubber tapping remained disrupted by rainfall, keeping raw material prices elevated, while the country's meteorological agency warned of severe rains and flash floods. The impact of El Niño also raised concerns over production, adding to supply risks. Signs of tighter availability were also evident in China, where natural rubber imports fell 6.7% year-on-year to 486,000 tonnes in August, the lowest level for the month in six years, while rubber inventories at warehouses in Qingdao, a major trading and storage hub, declined by 17,400 tonnes in the week of September 18.

Rubber futures rose above 241 US cents per kilogram in late September, moving back toward the 13-year high reached earlier this month, as supply concerns supported prices. In Thailand, heavy rainfall disrupted tapping in some production areas, contributing to elevated raw-material costs, with cup-lump prices rising 44.56% year-on-year to 73.8 THB/kg as of September 21. Although rainfall in northern and northeastern Thailand has recently eased, potentially improving immediate tapping conditions, El Niño-related weather risks could pose a longer-term threat to rubber production. Signs of tighter availability were also evident in China, where natural rubber imports fell 6.7% year-on-year to 486,000 tonnes in August, the lowest level for the month in six years, while inventories in Qingdao declined by 17,400 tonnes in the week of September 18. Meanwhile, lower crude oil prices are making synthetic rubber cheaper, potentially limiting gains in natural rubber.