Rubber Futures Near 1-Month High

Rubber futures rose slightly above 201 US cents per kilogram, approaching a one-month high of 203 US cents hit on April 1st. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, along with elevated crude oil prices, are driving up synthetic rubber costs, boosting demand for natural rubber. Global shipping disruptions continue to pose risks to the supply of critical raw materials such as chemicals, petrochemical derivatives, and synthetic rubber. At the same time, supply remains constrained as Southeast Asia, the main producing region, stays in its low-production “wintering” season until June.

Rubber futures rose further to surpass 200 US cents per kilogram, the highest since early March, partly driven by higher oil prices amid uncertainty over a potential de-escalation of the Middle East conflict. Moreover, tight naphtha supplies have curtailed butadiene production, pushing up synthetic rubber prices and supporting demand for natural rubber as an alternative. Seasonal low output in major Southeast Asian producers from February to May further supports prices ahead of the June–September harvest.

Rubber prices dropped below 190 US cents per kilogram, their weakest since early February, pressured by a stronger dollar and fading supply concerns. Attention now turns to the April–May harvest peak, which could ease downward momentum as wintering ends and tapping restarts. Yet, demand remains resilient, backed by strong Asian auto production. Geely, for instance, targets 640,000 overseas vehicle sales in 2026, a 50% year-on-year jump. Meanwhile, central banks globally flagged risks from soaring oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict, which may indirectly support rubber: since synthetic rubber is petroleum-derived, rising crude costs could lift input prices, providing a floor for the market.