Rubber Futures Edge Lower

Rubber futures eased to around 203 US cents per kilogram, down from recent one-year highs of 205 US cents per kilogram, pressured by rising inventories in China. At the same time, local brokers noted that production rates at Chinese tire manufacturers are yet to reach pre-Lunar New Year levels. The downside was partially cushioned by higher oil prices amid the Middle East conflict and seasonal supply constraints. In the key producing region of Southeast Asia, February–May marks the low-production period, known as the annual “wintering” season, when latex yields naturally fall. Excess rainfall in major producing countries such as Thailand and Indonesia has further constrained raw-material availability.

Rubber futures traded near 205 US cents per kilogram, hovering close to levels last seen in December 2024, supported by seasonal supply tightness and rising demand expectations. Buyers brace for the February–May low-production season in the key producing region of Southeast Asia, before harvesting typically ramps into late summer. Rubber trees produce less latex during the annual ‘wintering’ season, a period when tapping is minimal due to cooler or drier conditions. Moreover, increased rainfall in major producers like Thailand and Indonesia is reportedly reducing raw-material flows, tightening supply further. Meanwhile, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) said recently that global demand is set to exceed production for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, driven by stronger automotive-sector growth globally. Global output is forecast to rise 2.4% to 15.2 million tons, while demand is expected to climb 1.7% to 15.6 million tons.

Rubber futures traded around 193 US cents per kilogram, close to the highest since April 2025, supported by seasonal supply constraints and expectations of stronger demand. Most major rubber-producing regions in Southeast Asia have largely concluded rubber tapping as crops move into the off-season. Rubber trees typically see a brief tapping period in late January, followed by reduced output from February through May, before production picks up again during the peak harvest season, which runs until September. In the meantime, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) said on February 19 that global demand for natural rubber is projected to exceed production for a sixth straight year in 2026, driven by stronger automotive-sector growth in both emerging and advanced economies. Global output is projected to increase by 2.4% in 2026, reaching 15.2 million tons while demand is expected to grow by 1.7%, climbing to 15.6 million tons.