Rice Hits 10-week Low

Rice prices eased to around $17.2 per hundredweight amid profit-taking, but remained close to their highest level since June 2024. Concerns over global supply persist, with El Niño-related weather disruptions threatening production across major rice-growing countries in Asia, including India, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia. India is particularly exposed, as El Niño contributed to its weakest monsoon in more than a decade. As a result, India's rice production is expected to decline for the first time in a decade and marking its steepest annual drop in nearly 20 years. However, the impact is likely to be cushioned by substantial inventories accumulated from previous record harvests. Thailand is also facing weather-related production risks, as El Niño threatens to bring hotter and drier conditions that could constrain irrigation water supplies and affect crop development. Meanwhile, flooding in parts of the country has disrupted agricultural activity and transportation.

Rice decreased to 14.75 USD/cwt, the lowest since August 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice gained 4.72%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 67.47%.

Rice prices have extended their rally, climbing above $17.9 per hundredweight to their highest level since June 2024. Upward momentum has gathered pace in recent months, with prices soaring more than 85% since the start of the year, reflecting growing concerns over tightening supply across major Asian exporting countries. In India, rice production is projected to decline by 7 million tonnes to 147 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year following a weak monsoon. Still, increased new-season arrivals are improving domestic availability and providing some near-term relief to the market. Meanwhile, flooding in Thailand has disrupted rice transportation and raised concerns over planting delays and potential crop losses. More broadly, the developing El Niño phenomenon is adding uncertainty to production prospects across Asia, with potentially erratic rainfall, prolonged dry spells and reduced water availability threatening crop development and yields.