Palm Oil Eases, Eyes Strongest Monthly Gain Since April 2022

Malaysian palm oil futures slipped below MYR 4,800 per tonne on Tuesday, snapping a three-session gain as profit-taking set in, the ringgit firmed, and soyoil prices weakened on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges. Caution also emerged ahead of full-month March export data due later today, following a run of firm figures. Demand signals from top buyer India eased, with March imports projected at 680,000 tonnes versus 847,689 tonnes in February, adding pressure. Indian regulators also extended the suspension of derivatives trading in key agricultural commodities, including crude palm oil, through March 2027, potentially curbing activity. Still, futures remain on track for a robust monthly gain of about 17.6%, the largest since April 2022, boosted by a surge in crude oil prices amid prolonged Middle East tensions. In China, a key buyer, manufacturing activity picked up after the Spring Festival. Meantime, Indonesia, the main supplier, reaffirmed plans to roll out its B50 mandate this year.

Malaysian palm oil futures extended gains for a third session on Monday, with prices holding above MYR 4,650 per tonne. A weaker ringgit underpinned sentiment, along with strength in Dalian palm olein as well as soyoil prices in Chicago markets. Robust exports added momentum, as cargo surveyors noted March 1–25 shipments surged 38–51% from February, reflecting strong post-Eid demand. Supply concerns also lent support, with top supplier Indonesia accelerating its B50 biodiesel rollout and weighing higher April export taxes. Crude oil’s upside amid the Iran war further bolstered sentiment. However, upside was capped by softer demand from top buyer India, where March imports are projected at 680,000 tonnes versus 847,689 tonnes in February. Indian regulators also extended the suspension of derivatives trading in key agricultural commodities, including crude palm oil, through March 2027. Caution lingered ahead of the March PMI data in China, another main consumer, set for later this week.

Malaysian palm oil futures rose for a second straight session on Friday, hovering near MYR 4,600 per tonne, supported by firmer edible oils on the Dalian exchange and a weaker ringgit. Strong export demand added momentum, with cargo surveyors reporting that March 1–25 shipments surged between 38% to 51% from February, reflecting robust post-Eid buying. Elevated crude oil prices amid Middle East tensions further lifted sentiment, boosting prospects for biofuel demand. However, futures are set to end the week slightly lower, down 0.2%, as earlier gains faded. The pullback was driven by expectations of weaker Indian demand, with March imports projected at 680,000 tonnes versus 847,689 tonnes in February. In Indonesia, authorities are accelerating the B50 biodiesel rollout while weighing higher export taxes for April. Meanwhile, caution lingers ahead of March PMI data in China, a key buyer, due next week, after factory activity slowed in February during the extended Lunar New Year holiday.