Nickel Hits 22-month High

Nickel futures traded above $19,200, marking a near two-year high as supply disruptions and tightening raw material availability reinforced bullish momentum in the market. Prices were underpinned by mining quota cuts in Indonesia, which have constrained ore supply and raised concerns over feedstock availability for downstream processors. In addition, a sulfur shortage linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz added further pressure by raising processing costs for nickel intermediates and tightening output conditions beyond the mining stage. Sentiment was also supported by broader strength across base metals, with SHFE nickel and peers advancing amid a softer dollar and improved risk appetite. Indonesian stainless steel producers suspended offers ahead of expected price hikes, signaling pass-through of higher input costs. Further momentum was driven by expectations of continued supply discipline in Indonesia, reinforcing views that tight conditions could persist in the near term.

Nickel increased to 19163.00 USD/T, the highest since June 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Nickel gained 10.59%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 22.15%.

Nickel futures traded above $18,750, hovering close to a more than three-month high of $18,775, with the market consolidating after a strong rally. The uptrend is underpinned by expectations of a tighter global balance, after the International Nickel Study Group projected a shift into a small market deficit in 2026, reversing this year’s surplus. The outlook reflects stronger demand growth relative to supply, supporting a firmer medium-term price tone. On the supply side, Indonesia continues to shape cost dynamics after revising its nickel ore benchmark pricing framework, lifting upstream cost floors by broadening input factors and raising base pricing assumptions. This has reinforced higher production costs and a firmer global cost curve. At the same time, pressures in Indonesia’s HPAL sector persist, with elevated input costs limiting processing flexibility for nickel intermediates used in battery materials, keeping supply tight in the near term.