Neodymium Rare Earth Futures on Upward Trend

Neodymium prices dropped to 517,500 RMB after reaching a peak of 562,000, following China’s latest export restrictions, which notably excluded neodymium and praseodymium. Analysts suggest China is focusing on rarer elements that are harder to source outside its borders. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan discovered a significant rare earth reserve at Zhana Kazakhstan, with over 20 million metric tons, potentially becoming the third-largest globally. Despite the exclusion of neodymium and praseodymium from restrictions, seven other rare earths, including samarium and dysprosium, were added to the export control list, disrupting global supply chains.

Neodymium rare earth futures jumped over 10% to 556,000 RMB/ton as buyers rushed to secure supply amid growing concerns of a global shortage. The surge follows a sharp rise in China’s March rare earth exports, up 20% y/y, as overseas demand spiked in anticipation of tighter availability. Ongoing conflict in Myanmar—a major supplier—has disrupted shipments, while China, which dominates global production, just imposed new export restrictions on seven key rare earth categories. Imports into China have also dropped sharply due to Myanmar's instability, deepening supply risks and fueling price volatility.