US Natgas Prices Climb to 4-Week High

US natural gas prices climbed to around $3.24/MMBtu on Tuesday, their highest level in four weeks, as colder weather outlook, record LNG export flows, and declining production supported the market. Forecasts shifted cooler across parts of the central and eastern US through November 20, raising expectations for stronger heating demand in the coming weeks. Robust LNG export activity also provided support, with average gas flows to the nine major export terminals reaching a record 19.3 bcfd so far in November, surpassing October's previous monthly record of 18.4 bcfd. On the supply side, Lower 48 production averaged 112.1 bcfd so far this month, down from 113.4 bcfd in October. Meanwhile, inventories remained comfortably within the normal range, with analysts estimating stocks stood 2.1% above the five-year average in the week ended November 6, up from 1.4% the previous week.

US natural gas prices rose more than 4% to $3.13/MMBtu on Monday, reaching their highest level since October 15, as forecasts of a sharp cold spell pointed to stronger heating demand. More than 160 million Americans could face below-average temperatures by November 14, a significant reversal from the unusually warm conditions expected earlier in the week, particularly across the Northeast, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Supply-side factors also supported prices, with the latest EIA report showing a smaller-than-expected storage build of 77 Bcf for the week ended October 30. Inventories reached 3.801 trillion cubic feet, remaining 2.8% below year-earlier levels but 1.4% above the five-year average. Meanwhile, Lower 48 production averaged 111.2 Bcf per day in November, down from October’s 113.4 Bcf. LNG export flows also eased slightly, although international demand for US shipments remains strong amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions to global energy supplies.

US natural gas prices rose to $3.0/MMBtu, hovering at their highest level in over a week, after EIA data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in inventories. Storage rose by 77 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week ended October 30, below forecasts for an 81 Bcf build, bringing total stocks to 3.801 trillion cubic feet. Inventories remained 2.8% below year-earlier levels but 1.4% above the five-year average. Meanwhile, domestic production has weakened, with output in the Lower 48 states averaging 111.2 Bcf per day so far in November, down from 113.4 Bcf in October. However, warmer-than-normal weather is expected to persist through November 20, limiting heating demand. Average gas flows to major US LNG export terminals have also eased to 18.2 Bcf per day, from 18.4 Bcf in October. Nevertheless, global demand for US LNG remains strong amid supply disruptions linked to the war in Ukraine and the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.