US Natgas Prices Edge Up

US natural gas futures rose around 2% to $2.96 per MMBtu as producers reduced output over the US holiday weekend and more domestic supply was redirected to LNG export terminals along the Gulf Coast. Estimated gas flows to LNG facilities reached about 18.4 billion cubic feet per day on Tuesday, up nearly 9% from the previous week, as several export plants returned from seasonal maintenance that had temporarily redirected supply into the domestic market. Average gas production in the Lower 48 states slipped to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from 109.8 billion in April. Lower output and firmer demand in recent weeks likely reduced the storage surplus to around 6% above normal, compared with roughly 7% the week before. However, below average temperatures are expected across California through May 30 and in the Eastern US from May 31 to June 4, potentially reducing air conditioning demand and allowing more gas to flow into storage.

US natural gas futures rose to $2.92 per MMBtu but remained near a one-week low as a milder weather outlook and rising inventories continued to weigh on prices. Temperatures are forecast to stay largely near seasonal norms through early June, reducing expectations for stronger power-sector demand. The latest EIA report showed energy firms injected 101 bcf of gas into storage in the week ending May 15, larger than market expectations for a 95-bcf build and the five-year average increase of 92 bcf for the same period, reinforcing concerns about ample supply. Weaker feedgas demand from export facilities added further pressure, with flows to major US terminals declining from a record 18.8 bcfd in April to around 17.0 bcfd in May due to seasonal maintenance at plants including Golden Pass LNG and Freeport LNG. Still, some positive sentiment emerged after reports indicated that three US LNG cargoes are expected to arrive in China in June, the first such deliveries since February 2025.

US natural gas futures fell to $2.88 per MMBtu, the lowest level in a week, pressured by elevated storage levels and mild weather forecasts. The EIA report showed energy firms injected 101 bcf of gas into storage for the week ended May 15, above market expectations for a 95-bcf build and the five-year average increase of 92 bcf for the period. Forecasts pointing to mostly near-normal weather through early June, curbing demand from the power sector. Additional pressure came from softer LNG export activity. Flows to major US LNG export facilities declined from a monthly record of 18.8 bcfd in April to around 17.0 bcfd so far in May, due to seasonal maintenance at facilities including Golden Pass LNG and Freeport LNG. Meanwhile, some supportive signals emerged from reports that three US LNG cargoes are scheduled to arrive in China in June, marking the first such shipments since February 2025.