US Natgas Prices Top $6.6/MMBtu

US natural gas futures fell to $2.92 per MMBtu on Monday after four consecutive sessions of gains, as traders assessed shifting weather forecasts. Updated forecasts indicate slightly cooler weather, though temperatures are still expected to remain above seasonal averages across most of the country through the end of March. Last week, the EIA reported a larger-than-average storage withdrawal, but analysts widely see it to be the final draw of the winter season as warmer weather takes hold. Meanwhile, the war in the Middle East has driven global gas prices sharply higher amid disruptions to LNG flows from Qatar. However, US natural gas prices have remained relatively stable as the country produces all the gas it consumes, and LNG export terminals are already running at full capacity, preventing additional exports even if global prices rise.

US natural gas futures climbed to $3.00 per MMBtu after a larger-than-expected storage draw, with EIA data showing a 54 billion cubic feet withdrawal for the week ended March 20, above forecasts for 44 bcf. This contrasts with a 33 bcf injection a year earlier and a five-year average decline of 21 bcf. Stockpiles fell to 1.829 trillion cubic feet, about 5.2% above year-ago levels and 0.8% above the seasonal average. The latest draw is likely the final withdrawal of the winter season as warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected through early April, reducing demand. Meanwhile, investors weighed hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East war, after President Trump extended a pause on striking Iran's energy plants for 10 days at Tehran's request. Despite this, US gas prices remain relatively stable due to ample inventories and limited short-term exposure to global markets.

US natural gas futures fell to $2.93 per MMBtu on Thursday, hovering near their lowest level in over three weeks, as traders awaited the EIA’s weekly storage report later in the day, which is expected to show inventories staying slightly above the five-year average. While projections point to a 51 Bcf withdrawal, this will likely be the last weekly withdrawal of the winter season. Temperatures are now forecasted to remain warmer than normal through April 9, limiting gas consumption in the coming weeks. In the Middle East, Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal and presented its own negotiation framework. Still, the White House said talks with Iran remained ongoing and productive, despite Tehran’s public denials. Despite the geopolitical uncertainty, the US remains largely insulated from external supply shocks, given that domestic output covers all consumption needs, and LNG export capacity is already maxed out, preventing additional exports even if global prices rise.