US Natgas Prices Top $6.6/MMBtu

US natural gas futures fell to around $3.08 per MMBtu on Tuesday, marking a second consecutive day of declines as concerns over prolonged supply disruptions eased. On Monday, G-7 finance ministers indicated readiness to release strategic oil reserves if needed, while President Trump suggested the ongoing conflict could be approaching its end. Still, risks in energy markets remain, with the world’s largest LNG export hub still offline and the Strait of Hormuz closed. Compared with global benchmarks, US natural gas prices have been less affected, as the country already produces enough gas to meet local demand, with LNG export capacity nearing its limit. Additionally, warmer-than-normal weather forecasts across much of the US through late March are expected to reduce heating demand, further limiting upward pressure on prices.

US natural gas futures fell over 4% to below $3.05 per MMBtu on Monday as the prospect of a swift de-escalation in the Middle East eased the risk premium across the energy complex. While international benchmarks remained elevated due to the QatarEnergy force majeure, the Henry Hub was pressured by President Donald Trump suggesting the Iranian conflict is nearing completion and that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is resuming. This shift in sentiment accelerated a sell-off driven by unseasonably warm weather forecasts and record domestic production levels. Furthermore, ongoing infrastructure outages at the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas continue to trap supply within the domestic market, limiting the influence of global scarcity on local prices. Despite a significant weekly storage withdrawal, the combination of high supply and reduced export capacity means that domestic natural gas has largely decoupled from the price volatility seen in crude oil.

US natural gas futures slipped to around $3.12 per MMBtu due to rising domestic supply and softer export demand. Gas flows to the nine main US LNG export terminals averaged about 18.1 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February, partly due to an outage at Freeport LNG’s Texas facility caused by a feedgas issue. Global energy markets remain volatile after QatarEnergy halted LNG production and declared force majeure during the conflict involving Iran, removing roughly 20% of global LNG supply and driving international gas prices higher. However, US prices have risen much less because the country already produces enough gas for domestic needs and LNG export capacity is near its limit. Weather is also capping demand, with forecasts calling for warmer-than-normal conditions across the US through late March, reducing heating needs. Meanwhile, gas production in the Lower 48 states has increased to about 110 bcfd so far in March.