Lumber Remains Near 2-Year Low

Lumber futures rose above $520 per thousand board feet, but held close to their lowest level in over two years, as traders weighed weakness in the US housing market against expectations of tighter supply. Housing demand remains constrained by elevated mortgage rates and higher construction costs linked to tariffs, although mortgage rates have eased for a second consecutive week. Meanwhile, Canada-US trade talks have resumed after collapsing in August, when tariffs on several wood products were introduced. Later in October, the US Commerce Department lowered antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood to 24.75% from 35.16%, although a separate 10% tariff keeps total duties at 34.75%. Persistent trade barriers continue to weigh on the market, while mill closures across North America could tighten supply. Low selling prices and subdued demand may also prompt mills to scale back production as profitability comes under pressure.

Lumber futures fell below $515 per thousand board feet to reach its lowest level since September 2024, amid persistent weakness in the U.S. housing market and elevated input costs. The White House removed 50% tariffs on Canadian plywood, effective October 30th, though softwood lumber tariffs remained in place and elevated, potentially making plywood a relatively cheaper substitute in certain construction applications. While the Commerce Department lowered antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood to 24.75% from 35.16%, a separate 10% US tariff brings total duties to 34.75%. The US Lumber Coalition backed the decision, as forestry groups have long accused Canada of dumping lumber in the US. President Trump also signed an order aimed at reducing homeownership costs. The measures come as the U.S. housing sector remains under pressure from high mortgage rates and construction costs, with homebuilder confidence falling to its lowest level in 14 years.

Lumber decreased to 514.00 USD/1000 board feet, the lowest since September 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Lumber lost 2.91%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 10.33%.