Lumber Climbs on Supply Constraints

Lumber futures fell below $580 per thousand board feet, retreating from a two-week high as hopes for a Canada-US trade deal faded. Negotiations had broken down just before the planned tariff deadline on Saturday, with the two sides discussing a deal that would have removed a 10% tariff on lumber. The US had earlier imposed 50% tariffs on several Canadian lumber-related products, while softwood lumber was excluded, although existing duties of around 35% continued to weigh on demand. US demand for Canadian lumber fell 1.7% in the first half of the year, while its market share declined slightly. The Canadian government sees little prospect of negotiations resuming, although its counter-tariffs are not due to take effect until September 8th, potentially leaving room for further negotiations. Meanwhile, weakness in the US housing market added pressure, with mortgage rates near one-year highs and housing starts falling 12.4% in July, driven by a sharp decline in single-family construction.

Lumber futures traded near $580 per thousand board feet, rebounding from a three-month low of $568 as the US temporarily delayed new duties on Canadian goods. The US president signed a proclamation moving the start of the tariffs to Saturday, while Canada and the US negotiate an interim trade agreement. Earlier, the US imposed tariffs on several Canadian lumber-related products, while Canadian softwood lumber was excluded. However, pre-existing duties of around 35% continued to weigh on demand. US demand for Canadian lumber fell 1.7% in the first half of the year, while its share of the US market declined slightly. Meanwhile, a weak US housing market added pressure, with mortgage rates near one-year highs and housing starts falling 12.4% in July, driven by a sharp decline in lumber-intensive single-family construction to its lowest level since late 2022.

Lumber prices fell below $580 per thousand board feet as tariff uncertainty continued to weigh on demand. Canada’s minister responsible for US trade relations said the country remains committed to negotiations, although reports indicated Canadian officials were dissatisfied with the latest US offer and continued to push for zero tariffs on softwood lumber. Earlier, the US imposed tariffs on several Canadian lumber-related products, while Canadian softwood lumber was excluded. Still, US demand for Canadian lumber fell 1.7% in the first half of the year, while its share of the US market declined slightly. Shipments to markets outside the US also fell 3%. Meanwhile, mortgage rates rose to their highest level in a year, according to Freddie Mac, while mortgage applications declined in the final weeks of July. Construction spending on lumber-intensive single-family housing fell 3.3% year-on-year in June, adding to demand concerns.