Lumber Rebounds From September Lows

Lumber futures fell below $527 per thousand board feet, retreating toward a two-year low amid persistent weakness in the US housing market. Homebuilder confidence has fallen to its lowest level in 14 years, as high mortgage rates, labor shortages and high construction costs continue to weigh on the sector. Mortgage rates have climbed to 7.4%, their highest level in three years, raising borrowing costs, dampening housing demand and weighing on prices. On the other hand, trade tensions with Canada continue to constrain lumber availability and pressuring prices. Although the US Department of Commerce lowered antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber to 24.75% from 35.16%, a separate 10% US tariff brings total duties to 34.75%, limiting the potential for a supply recovery. The US Lumber Coalition backed the decision, as forestry groups have long accused Canada of dumping lumber in the US. Conversely, the NAHB has called for a pause on building material tariffs.

Lumber futures held around $535 per thousand board feet, remaining near their highest level in over a month, as US-Canada trade tensions persisted. The US Department of Commerce lowered antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber to 24.75% from 35.16%, raising hopes for a demand recovery. However, a separate 10% US tariff brings total duties to 34.75% and keeps supply availability low. The US Lumber Coalition backed the decision, as US forestry groups have long accused Canada of distorting the market, arguing that the largely public owned Canadian forestland gives domestic producers a cost advantage. Prolongued exposure to high tariffs continues to pressure Canadian lumber output, having declined 8.6% in July 2026 from the month prior. However, gains remain tempered by weakness in the US housing market. Mortgage rates have climbed to 7.4%, their highest in nearly three years, raising borrowing costs for homebuyers and weighing on housing demand.

Lumber futures rose to $540 per thousand board feet, their highest level in nearly a month, as Hurricane Isaias threatened supplies across key producing regions. The storm swept through the US Gulf Coast, causing major power outages in Alabama and Mississippi, both significant lumber-producing states, raising concerns over supply disruptions and pressuring prices. Lumber supplies were already constrained by escalating trade tensions between the US and Canada. Ottawa had announced counter-tariffs of 25% on US lumber and 50% on plywood in response to US tariffs on several lumber-related products. US forestry groups have long accused Canada of distorting the market, arguing that the largely public owned Canadian forestland gives domestic producers a cost advantage. However, gains remain tempered by weakness in the US housing market. Mortgage rates have climbed to 7.4%, their highest in nearly three years, raising borrowing costs for homebuyers and weighing on housing demand.