Heating Oil Rises Toward Record

US heating oil prices rose toward $4.80 per gallon, moving close to their recent peak of $5.20 reached in mid-September, driven by persistent supply concerns. The potential for further escalation between the US and Iran and continued attacks in the Middle East raised concerns over energy flows despite increased regional shipments. Meanwhile, disruptions to Russia’s refining operations and extended diesel-export restrictions, along with China’s reported suspension of October fuel exports, added to global diesel supply constraints. Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf of Mexico also threatened to disrupt oil and refining operations, with Gulf Coast refineries accounting for about half of US refining capacity of 18.2 million bpd. Against this backdrop, EIA data showed distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 42 thousand barrels in the week ended October 2, leaving inventories 12% below the five-year average.

US heating oil prices rose above $4.70 per gallon, extending gains for a fourth straight session, as supply concerns continued to add to an already tight refined-products market. A developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico could disrupt oil and refining operations, with refineries in US Gulf states accounting for about 50% of the national refining capacity of 18.2 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, continued attacks in the Middle East raised concerns over energy flows despite increased regional shipments, while disruptions to Russia’s refining operations and extended diesel-export restrictions, along with China’s reported suspension of October fuel exports, added to global diesel supply constraints. The EIA raised its 2026 and 2027 oil price forecasts, citing rapidly falling global inventories and tight diesel markets. Separately, the Trump administration ordered temporary relief from certain diesel-tax payments and penalties for using dyed diesel on highways through the year-end.

Heating Oil decreased to 4.38 USD/Gal, the lowest since August 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Heating Oil lost 4.1%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 93.38%.