Heating Oil Falls to 2-Week Low

Heating oil futures for delivery at New York Harbor fell over 3% to around $3.70 per gallon, hitting a two-week low, as optimism over a US-Iran deal raised expectations of gradual normalization in Middle East energy exports. President Trump said discussions were moving forward in a constructive manner but reiterated that the US would not expedite an agreement. He also noted that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz had been largely negotiated and could be announced soon, but the US blockade would stay in place until the negotiations are fully concluded. Exports of distillate products from the region have been largely halted since the war began in March, straining refinery operations and pushing heating oil futures to a record high of $4.60 that month. Meanwhile, US distillate stocks unexpectedly rose in mid-May, contrasting with a drop in gasoline, suggesting refiners prioritized diesel and jet fuel production amid global transportation fuel shortages.

Heating oil futures for delivery at the New York Harbor held below $4.0 per gallon, down from the seven-week high of $4.16 touched May 19th, as markets assessed the outlook on domestic refining activity and Middle Eastern petrol supply. Data from the EIA showed that stocks of distillate fuel in the US inched higher by 372 thousand barrels in the first week of May, contrasting with bets of a 1.1 million draw. The data also contrasted with a 1.5 million barrel draw for gasoline, indicating that refineries opted to concentrate capacity in diesel and jet fuel due to the shortages in global transportation hubs. The overall supply backdrop remained tight as the standstill between the US and Iran prolonged expectations of the suspension in energy exports from the Middle East. The export of distilled products from the region has been all but halted since the start of the war in March, stressing refineries and driving the price of heating oil futures to a record high of $4.6 in March.

Heating oil futures in the US traded around $4.10 per gallon, holding a three-day gain to a near six-week high, driven by disrupted energy exports from the Middle East as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed. Negotiations between the US and Iran have also repeatedly failed to yield meaningful progress, with markets closely monitoring President Donald Trump’s shifting stance on potential Iran strikes that could reignite military tensions. Tightening global refinery supply conditions had previously pushed heating oil futures to a peak of $4.60 per gallon in March. The International Energy Agency recently warned that refinery throughput is expected to decline in Q2, keeping distillate markets tight and supported in part by strong transportation fuel demand. Meanwhile, API data showed distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, fell by roughly 1.1 million barrels in the week ending May 15.