Germany Natural Gas Futures Fall to 5-Week Low

German natural gas futures fell more than 4% toward €33 per megawatt-hour, as comments from Donald Trump about a possible limited strike on Iran eased fears of major disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets had been concerned that escalating tensions could threaten shipments via the strait, a key route for roughly 20% of global LNG exports, including volumes from Qatar. Despite reports of military drills by Iran and a US buildup in the region, traders appeared to price in a lower risk of immediate supply interruption. Additional pressure came from milder weather forecasts, steady Norwegian flows despite outages and stronger renewable generation in Germany. However, inventories in the European Union remain low at around 32%, with German storage below 22%.

German natural gas futures rose above €33 per megawatt-hour, rebounding from a five-week low of €29.82 on Feb 17, as fears grow that escalating tensions between United States and Iran could disrupt LNG flows through key Middle East routes. Markets are focused on shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about 20% of global LNG, including exports from Qatar, the second largest exporter. A report from Axios said US military action against Iran could come sooner than expected, with Israel pushing for regime change, raising risks to regional supply. Tight EU inventories add support, with European Union storage near 32.5%, the lowest since 2022, and Germany below 23%. Still, warmer weather, steady flows despite outages in Norway and stronger renewables in Germany are easing pressure.

German natural gas futures fell below €32 per megawatt-hour, the lowest in five weeks, as milder weather forecasts reduced heating demand and eased near term supply concerns. Warmer and windier conditions are expected across central and western Europe, with temperatures in Germany projected to rise slightly above seasonal averages. Despite the price decline, storage levels remain tight, with inventories across the European Union below 34%, the lowest since 2022, and German storage under 24%. However, ample LNG supply and lower US prices have improved availability, helping limit fears of immediate shortages. Natural gas prices in the United States also fell to a four month low on warmer weather, boosting export potential to Europe.