Gasoline Eases Off One-Month High

US gasoline futures fell to $3.05 per gallon after reaching near one-month high of $3.10 on July 8th, as markets reassessed the supply outlook following renewed US-Iran tensions in the Middle East. After revoking the 60-day waiver that allowed Iran to sell oil on global markets, the US launched retaliatory strikes in response to attacks on American bases, renewing concerns over potential disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. However, selected laden tankers from the UAE continued to ship their material, softening concerns that exports from the region could return to a standstill. The possibility of a crude supply glut amid accelerated output from a higher OPEC+ quotas also weighed on prices. Still, concerns remained on whether global refineries have sufficient capacity to process the excess supply.

Gasoline increased to 3.16 USD/Gal, the highest since June 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Gasoline gained 1.21%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 46.02%.

Gasoline futures for delivery in the New York Harbor rose above $3.1 per gallon, their highest in four weeks, after breaches to the US-Iran ceasefire jeopardized the return of Middle Eastern energy supply. The US launched a wave of attacks on Iran after the IRGC hit tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz. The US also stated it would block Iranian energy sales and President Trump stated he saw the ceasefire as done. Multiple oil and gas tankers turned back from crossing the Strait, risking a fresh halt to exports from the GCC shortly after crude oil feedstock prices had declined to pre-war levels. Still, tight refining capacity worldwide triggered a surge in crack spreads and gasoline futures were over 50% higher from late February. This was magnified by a preference for refineries to switch to distillates amid the shortage in jet fuel. On top of that, major Chinese refineries returned to energy markets after relying on stockpiles of crude oil since the outbreak of the war.