Gasoline Prices Fall Toward 3-Month Low

US gasoline prices fell toward $2.90 per gallon, moving toward three-month lows, as progress in US–Iran talks raised expectations of improved global oil supply. The US Treasury issued a 60-day license authorizing the production, shipment, and sale of Iranian oil. While both sides reported progress in early talks toward a broader agreement, inconsistencies remain, with Vice President JD Vance stating that Iran agreed to allow nuclear inspections, an assertion Tehran has disputed. Meanwhile, the US–Iran diplomacy has eased pressure on American motorists, contributing to lower fuel costs at the pump, with gasoline prices falling for a sixth straight week and down roughly 15% from their May peak. Elsewhere, US refining supply faced short-term disruptions, with TotalEnergies’ 238,000 bpd Port Arthur refinery shut after a lightning outage and Marathon’s 631,000 bpd Galveston Bay facility hit by a fire.

US gasoline prices held below $3.0 per gallon in June, as markets tracked a rapidly shifting US–Iran peace talk narrative. Both sides agreed on a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal, with technical talks set to continue through the rest of the week, according to mediators Qatar and Pakistan in Switzerland. However, doubts over the viability of the agreement persisted after local media earlier reported that Iran suspended talks following President Donald Trump’s renewed threats of military action. The fast-changing developments have left markets assessing how soon oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could return to normal operations. A normalization of shipping would open the door to higher crude supply from the region, alongside potential adjustments in OPEC+ output policy and a gradual return of Iranian barrels to export markets, feeding into global refining supply.

Gasoline futures for delivery in the NY Harbor were near the $2.97 per gallon mark, slightly above the three-month low of $2.88 touched on June 16th as markets assessed the pace that supply from the Middle East may return. The US and Iran delayed the start of peace after their memorandum pledged to restart the exports of crude oil from the Persian Gulf. Reports indicated that supertankers had already sailed toward the Strait of Hormuz, and Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait were already studying increases in production capacity. The added supply is due to replenish refineries across the globe with the higher export quotas from OPEC+ and higher output from the UAE, which left the cartel during the conflict. The deal is also due to lift US sanctions on Iran, increasing the supply from the major producer. Iranian output will likely refill Chinese oil stockpiles, which were depleted in the last months as the world's largest importer refrained from purchasing oil to prop up prices further.