Gasoline Prices Edge Up

US gasoline futures rose toward $3.20 per barrel, tracking a broader rebound in energy markets amid a standoff in US–Iran negotiations. It remains unclear whether Iran will join the US for a second round of talks ahead of Wednesday’s ceasefire deadline, while the Strait of Hormuz continues to be largely shut. Since the conflict with Iran began at the end of February, crude and refined product supplies from the Persian Gulf have been reduced by roughly 13 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency. Meanwhile, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said gasoline prices have likely already peaked after months of volatility linked to the conflict, though he cautioned they could remain above $3 per gallon well into 2026.

US gasoline futures slipped below $3.10 per barrel on Tuesday, halting gains from the prior session, as markets assessed signals that Iran could participate in US talks before the ceasefire expires. Tehran is said to be dispatching a delegation to Islamabad despite previous reluctance to re-engage in negotiations, though the head of the delegation has not been confirmed. However, tensions remained elevated after President Trump earlier said extending the truce was highly unlikely and warned of overwhelming military force. Iran’s chief negotiator also accused the US of applying pressure to talks, rejecting dialogue under threats and cautioning of escalation. Continued conflict across the Middle East has driven significant volatility in energy markets since March, especially with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. The ongoing standoff at this critical chokepoint raises the risk of a deeper global energy crisis.

US gasoline futures climbed 4% to above $3.12 per barrel on Monday, rebounding from a more than four-week low in the prior session, tracking a recovery in energy commodities as tensions flared again in the Middle East. President Donald Trump said a US Navy guided-missile destroyer disabled an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, after which Marines boarded and took control of the vessel. The action followed reports that Iran fired on commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran again closed the chokepoint, saying the US blockade of Iran-linked vessels breached a ceasefire due to expire Tuesday. The standoff in Hormuz raises the risk of a deeper global energy crisis and undercuts Trump’s expectation of a quick resolution to the conflict. Adding to supply pressures were continued attacks on Russian refining infrastructure.