Gasoline Heads for Strongest Month on Record

US gasoline futures hovered around $3.20 per gallon, heading for their strongest monthly gain on record of more than 30%, moving in line with crude as disruptions continue to affect roughly one-fifth of global oil transit. The supply shock is largely driven by the near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by Houthi threats in the Red Sea that increase the risk of disruptions along another critical maritime route. These pressures threaten to further tighten energy flows from the Middle East, with two of the world’s most vital trade arteries under strain. Although reports of possible negotiations emerged during the month, including recent indications that President Trump is willing to end the military campaign in Iran even if the Strait remains largely closed, markets remained cautious. Seasonal demand also provided support, as spring travel picks up and refineries switch to costlier summer fuel blends.

US gasoline futures rose above $3.35 per gallon, hitting their highest level since July 2022 as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to choke global supply and drive a record 30% monthly gain. This price surge is underpinned by the physical disruption of critical energy corridors where Houthi involvement in Yemen has introduced fresh risks to Red Sea transit and Yanbu shipments. While President Trump hinted at serious discussions to end the five-week conflict his concurrent ultimatum to obliterate Iranian power plants and the Kharg Island export hub if the waterway remains blocked has reinforced a massive geopolitical risk premium. The deployment of additional US forces and the resulting spike in WTI crude have created a floor that outweighs the impact of deteriorating global growth prospects. Consequently gasoline remains tethered to these supply-side shocks as the market weighs the hope of a peace deal against the threat of energy infrastructure destruction.

Gasoline increased to 3.33 USD/Gal, the highest since July 2022. Over the past 4 weeks, Gasoline gained 40.34%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 45.34%.