TTF Prices Hit Near 3-Week High

European natural gas surged over 5% to around €51 per MWh, the highest in nearly three weeks, as Iran and Israel traded missile strikes for the first time since a ceasefire was agreed in April, threatening ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the war. Israel said on Monday it struck military targets in Iran in response to missile attacks launched by Tehran, which Iran described as retaliation for earlier Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The latest strikes came despite President Donald Trump’s call for Israel to refrain from retaliatory action. The escalating hostilities have heightened fears of a more prolonged disruption to energy shipments from the Persian Gulf. The sustained disruption could intensify competition for LNG cargoes, fueling concerns in Europe as the region races to secure fuel this summer to refill storage facilities ahead of winter.

European natural gas futures traded around €48.4 per megawatt hour and were on track for a weekly gain of nearly 5.3%, amid a stalemate in US–Iran talks. There has been no clear progress in negotiations, while a renewed flare-up in fighting has heightened uncertainty. The rejection of a US-brokered ceasefire proposal by Iran-backed Hezbollah has further complicated efforts to de-escalate regional tensions. As a deal remains elusive, markets are increasingly worried that disruptions to energy shipments from the Persian Gulf could persist. A prolonged disruption could intensify competition for LNG cargoes, fueling concerns in Europe as the region races to secure fuel this summer to refill storage facilities ahead of winter.

European natural gas futures rose to €49.2 per megawatt hour, extending the previous session's gains amid a lack of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. The flare-up in fighting between the two nations this week underscored risks to negotiations. The mismatched statements also added to uncertainty, with Iran reporting that there had been “no tangible progress” in the talks, while President Trump said that talks are going "very well" and a deal could happen this weekend. Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a ceasefire, though it is contingent on a complete halt to Hezbollah attacks and the withdrawal of its operatives south of the Litani River. The continued lack of progress toward ending the conflict is increasing the risk that flows from the Persian Gulf could remain disrupted for an extended period. This has fueled concerns that Europe could struggle to rebuild gas inventories ahead of winter, with only 38% of its storage capacity currently filled.