TTF Gas Hits 5-week High

European natural gas prices extended gains on Thursday, climbing toward €63 as escalating hostilities in the Middle East heightened concerns over Europe's LNG security ahead of winter. The US and Iran continued to trade strikes, with both sides playing down the prospect of peace talks, raising the risk of prolonged disruptions to energy exports from the region. Iran-backed Houthi militants also entered the conflict, claiming to have targeted two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea. EU gas prices are now at levels seen during the peak of the conflict, as reduced LNG supplies from the Persian Gulf increase competition with Asian buyers, while high temperatures across Europe are boosting power demand. Equinor, Europe's largest gas supplier, warned that the bloc is unlikely to reach its 80% gas storage target before the heating season, leaving the market more vulnerable to sharp price volatility when colder weather arrives.

European natural gas prices rose to above €61 per MWh on Wednesday, hitting a fresh four-month high as the US and Iran continued to exchange strikes while President Donald Trump downplayed the likelihood of imminent talks. Trump said Iran “desperately wants to meet” but added that the US had no interest in talks. Iran, however, rejected these claims. Trump also warned of retaliation if Iran-backed Houthi rebels disrupted shipping in the Red Sea and renewed threats to attack a suspected Iranian nuclear site at Pickaxe Mountain. The escalating conflict has disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and curtailed LNG exports from the Gulf, fueling concerns over tighter global gas supplies. Europe is currently in the process of refilling storage facilities ahead of the heating season, and reduced LNG availability from the Gulf could force the bloc into more intense and costly competition with Asian buyers for available cargoes.

European natural gas prices climbed to above €59 per MWh on Tuesday, a four-month high, as continued attacks between the US and Iran outweighed reports of diplomatic efforts to ease tensions. Tehran said it had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire aimed at reviving the interim deal reached last month. This comes as the US carried out a tenth consecutive day of strikes against Iran, while Tehran continued retaliatory attacks against neighboring countries. The renewed hostilities have brought tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a standstill and delayed the anticipated recovery in Qatari LNG exports, reducing available supplies and intensifying competition among European and Asian buyers for cargoes. This makes increasingly difficult for Europe to replenish reserves ahead of winter, with storage facilities currently around 53% full, compared with roughly 64% a year ago and about 15 percentage points below the five-year average.