TTF Gas Hits 5-week High

European natural gas prices fell to €100/MWh on Monday as diplomatic efforts in the Middle East helped ease concerns over further escalation, although prices remained elevated amid tight supply conditions. Iranian negotiators held a third consecutive day of talks with Qatari mediators in Doha on Sunday, seeking to reach an agreement to end the war. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday that diplomatic contacts with Iran remained active and that President Trump had yet to decide on new strikes on Iran. However, Iran's Supreme Leader warned the US and Israel against launching further attacks. Gulf LNG supplies remain severely disrupted amid security threats around the Strait of Hormuz. Europe's gas storage levels remained historically low, standing at 74.62% as of November 1. With temperatures falling and withdrawals already beginning in several countries, storage levels are likely to face further pressure, keeping upside risks to prices.

European natural gas prices rose past €100 per megawatt-hour on Friday, the highest level since late 2022, and on track for a monthly gain of more than 30%, amid concerns over a renewed escalation of the Middle East war and Europe's need to secure gas supplies ahead of winter. Geopolitical risks intensified after reports on Thursday that a top military commander briefed President Trump on potential military options against Iran. Europe's gas supply is currently tight amid reduced LNG deliveries from the Persian Gulf, with storage levels at 74.89% as of October 29, below historical averages. Moreover, forecasts of colder weather across Europe, potentially coinciding with cold spells in Asia, could boost heating demand and affect storage replenishment. Europe and Asia are also expected to continue competing for cargoes during winter, possibly increasing exposure to price pressures and volatility.

European natural gas prices eased to €97 per megawatt-hour on Thursday after reaching €100 in the previous session, the highest level since December 2022. The recent rally has been driven by rising heating demand, low gas reserves in Europe, and concerns about a renewed escalation in the Middle East conflict. Prices have more than tripled since the outbreak of the war, as disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz halted LNG deliveries from several sources, primarily Qatar. This has left the region scrambling for alternatives and hampered efforts to refill storage over the summer. European gas storage facilities were about 75% full as of October 28, significantly below historical levels. Meanwhile, forecasts of colder weather across northwestern Europe in the coming days could boost heating demand, while potential cold snaps in parts of Asia may further intensify competition for available cargoes.