TTF Prices Ease on Iraq Exports, Hormuz Efforts

European natural gas futures rose 2% to €52.5 per MWh after earlier losses, following reports that Iran’s energy facilities were struck in airstrikes. Iranian state TV said US and Israeli strikes hit the South Pars gas field, shared with Qatar, and nearby petrochemical facilities in Asaluyeh, marking the first known attack on Iran’s upstream energy infrastructure in this conflict. South Pars reached record daily output of 730 million cubic meters in 2025. Meanwhile, Iraq struck a deal with Kurdistan to resume oil exports through a pipeline to Turkey’s port of Ceyhan, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, while the US intensified efforts to reopen the key route by targeting Iranian missile sites. Around 20% of global LNG flows normally pass through Hormuz, which has been largely shut since last month’s attacks. The disruption comes just ahead of the region’s stockpiling season, with storage levels already about 15 percentage points below the five year average after a cold winter.

European natural gas futures dropped below €51 per MWh as Iraq struck a deal with Kurdistan to resume oil exports through a pipeline to Turkey’s port of Ceyhan, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, while the US intensified efforts to reopen the key route by targeting Iranian missile sites. Around 20% of global LNG flows normally pass through Hormuz, which has been largely shut since last month’s attacks, forcing Europe to pay higher prices for fuel. The disruption comes just ahead of the region’s stockpiling season, with storage levels already about 15 percentage points below the five year average after a cold winter. As a result, Europe will need increased LNG imports this summer. HSBC expects gas prices to remain elevated, projecting a 40% increase in 2026.

European natural gas futures rose toward €52/MWh, as markets remained focused on prolonged supply disruptions amid the escalating Middle East conflict. Iran launched retaliatory strikes on Israel and several Arab states after the US targeted military installations on Kharg Island, a key hub handling most of the country’s oil exports, raising concerns about continued upheaval and further delaying the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping chokepoint. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump urged countries to help secure the passage, while reports indicated that the administration is expected to announce this week that several nations have agreed to form a coalition to escort vessels through the Strait. At the same time, European Union foreign ministers are set to discuss expanding a small naval mission in the Middle East.