TTF Prices Surge 10%

European natural gas prices fell to around €60 per MWh on Thursday but remained more than 8% higher so far this week, as supply concerns persisted amid uncertainty over efforts to resolve the Middle East conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Talks between the US and Iran appear to have hit an impasse, with both sides taking a firmer stance and President Trump insisting that Washington has full control of the key waterway and intends to keep it that way. Shipping disruptions have sharply curtailed LNG flows from the Gulf, significantly delaying cargoes from major exporter Qatar and making it difficult for Europe to rebuild gas inventories ahead of winter. Analysts anticipate European gas prices will maintain a firm floor until storage levels show clearer signs of building before the heating season begins. At the same time, intense summer heatwaves across Southern and Central Europe have ramped up gas-fired power generation to meet cooling needs, diverting supplies from storage.

European natural gas prices rose to €61 per MWh on Wednesday, resuming gains after a brief decline on Tuesday, as doubts grew over the likelihood of an agreement to resume energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Supply concerns persisted despite Pakistan’s defense minister saying that the US and Iran were “close to some sort of arrangement” over the waterway, while negotiations between Tehran and Oman were also reportedly making significant progress. Both Washington and Tehran had taken a firmer stance, clouding prospects for a swift reopening of the strait. The ongoing disruption to shipping has severely constrained LNG shipments, with cargoes from major exporter Qatar significantly delayed. Analysts expect European gas prices to maintain a firm floor until storage levels show clearer signs of building ahead of the heating season. Hot weather across Europe is also boosting electricity demand for cooling, adding further pressure to the market.

European natural gas prices fell below €59 per megawatt-hour as hopes for progress in US-Iran negotiations eased concerns over energy supplies. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said the two sides were “close to some sort of arrangement,” while talks between Iran and Oman over reopening the Strait of Hormuz were reportedly at an advanced stage. A deal could help restore LNG flows through the Persian Gulf and reduce pressure on European gas markets. Despite the optimism, Commerzbank raised its year-end European gas price forecast to €50/MWh from €45/MWh, while Uniper expects prices to remain around €50-€60/MWh as long as Hormuz remains closed. European storage levels recently fell to the lowest seasonal levels in records going back to 2009, heightening concerns over winter supplies. Meanwhile, persistent European heatwaves are boosting power demand and adding further pressure to gas markets.