TTF Prices Fall Below €30/MWh

European natural gas futures declined more than 13% to below €50/MWh on Tuesday, retreating from a three-year high after President Trump suggested that the Iran war could end soon, easing turmoil in global oil markets. The G-7 finance ministers also indicated they are prepared to release strategic oil reserves if necessary. Still, uncertainty remains, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, and operations in Qatar, one of the world’s largest exporters of LNG, have been suspended. Analysts cautioned that production halt in Qatar could erase most of the global LNG supply surplus projected in 2026. These disruptions pose significant risks to Europe, which has become increasingly reliant on LNG imports after reducing pipeline gas dependence on Russia. Gas storage levels across the continent are currently below 30%, heightening vulnerability. Early signs of regional supply constraints are also emerging, with Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region warning of short supply.

European natural gas futures jumped 5% to around €56/MWh on Monday, the highest in three years, building on last week’s 67% rally as supply concerns intensified. The surge follows disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz amid a Middle East conflict now in its second week with no resolution in sight. Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, the world’s largest, remains largely intact following its unprecedented shutdown last week, though the country’s energy minister warned that restarting operations and shipments could take weeks or even months. The halt in a major LNG exporter, could erase much of the global oversupply expected this year, according to Morgan Stanley. Russia has also raised the possibility of halting gas exports to Europe. With EU storage below 30%, the region is emerging from winter with depleted reserves. Meanwhile, G7 finance ministers are reportedly set to discuss a coordinated oil release with the International Energy Agency.

European natural gas futures rose above €52/MWh on Friday, heading for their largest weekly gain since February 2022, amid concerns that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could severely disrupt gas supplies. Prices have surged more than 50% this week, reaching their highest levels since early 2023. Early signs of gas supply problems in the region are emerging, with Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region warning it could run out of gas within days. Analysts expect that European gas storage could end March at only 22–27% of capacity, significantly below the five-year average of around 41%. If less LNG arrive in the next four weeks, storage levels could decline further, increasing the risk of supply shortages. Meanwhile, the Trump administration said it is weighing several measures to address the surge in energy prices.