TTF Prices Fall Below €30/MWh

European natural gas prices climbed above €77/MWh on Wednesday, extending gains for a fourth session to their highest level since December 2022, as continuing strikes in the Middle East heightened concerns over further supply disruptions. The US military said it destroyed five Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island on Tuesday in response to attacks on its warships, while Tehran retaliated against US targets in Jordan. Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen also launched drones and missiles at energy facilities in southern Saudi Arabia. These underscored mounting challenges to restoring normal commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The sustained disruptions have forced Qatar to suspend shipments and extend force majeure on cargoes to Europe and Asia through autumn. The reduced LNG deliveries have slowed European storage injections, with gas inventories remaining below the seasonal average, leaving the market increasingly vulnerable as the winter heating season approaches.

European natural gas prices rose above €74/MWh on Tuesday, hovering at their highest level in more than three and a half years, as LNG supply from the Persian Gulf remained severely disrupted amid heightened US-Iran tensions. The escalation in fighting between the two nations underscored the difficulty of reaching a resolution to the conflict that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran on Monday warning that energy infrastructure across the region, including US oil and gas facilities, could be vulnerable to further attacks. Qatar has largely suspended LNG shipments and extended force majeure on cargoes bound for European and Asian markets through the autumn, amid continued shipping disruptions through the critical waterway. The reduced inflow has slowed the pace of gas storage injections in Europe, with EU storage facilities around 66% full, below the seasonal average, leaving the gas market increasingly vulnerable as the heating season approaches.

European natural gas prices jumped more than 2% to above €73/MWh on Monday, their highest level in more than three and a half years, amid escalating US-Iran tensions that could further disrupt energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. Iran said it had targeted oil tankers and several US-linked vessels and plans to establish a restricted maritime zone beyond the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days. This followed US strikes on Iranian oil tankers, which Washington said were carried out in retaliation for Tehran’s missile attacks on US Navy warships. The continuing tit-for-tat escalation is heightening concerns that Qatari LNG shipments to Europe could be delayed even further. Europe is approaching the end of its summer storage injection period, with gas storage facilities currently around 62% full, below the five-year seasonal average. This increases the risk of tighter competition for supplies and leaves the region more exposed to price spikes during the colder months.