TTF Prices Fall Below €30/MWh

European natural gas prices fell below €70 per megawatt-hour, the lowest in a month, as weaker Chinese demand eased pressure on a tight global market. China’s LNG imports are expected to decline for a second consecutive month, with September deliveries forecast at about 5.3 million tons, roughly 8% below a year earlier, as high prices linked to the Middle East conflict discourage spot purchases. Meanwhile, Europe faces increasing pressure to rebuild unusually low gas inventories before winter, particularly as around a fifth of global LNG normally transits the Strait of Hormuz. EU storage facilities are about 71% full, well below the five-year seasonal average of 87%, while Germany’s sites are just above 57%. The EU has urged countries to conserve energy and continue filling storage. QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on LNG supplies to Italy’s Edison until December, while Pakistan’s supply arrangements have been extended into November amid shipping difficulties through Hormuz.

European natural gas prices fell to €72/MWh on Tuesday, giving back much of the prior session's gains as a report of increased LNG tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz eased some supply concerns. Several QatarEnergy-linked vessels have recently been seen outside the strait, suggesting LNG flows may be gradually resuming. However, supply risks remain elevated as the US and Iran remained far apart on a new deal that could reopen the waterway, with Tehran maintaining conditions that President Trump has rejected. QatarEnergy also extended its force majeure on LNG deliveries to Italy’s Edison through early December. European storage facilities are around 71% full, below the five-year seasonal average of 87%, while Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, has even lower storage levels, at just over 57%. The situation is further complicated by intense competition with Asia and ongoing maintenance on Norway’s gas infrastructure, heightening concerns over gas supply adequacy during winter.

European natural gas prices rose above €72/MWh, as Qatar’s prolonged LNG supply disruptions and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about gas supplies. QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on LNG deliveries to Italy’s Edison through December, while Pakistan has reportedly secured an extension into November because of difficulties shipping gas through the waterway. Iran has maintained its conditions for reopening the strait after US President Donald Trump rejected its latest proposal, although he indicated that talks could resume this week. The prolonged uncertainty is raising concerns about Europe’s ability to replenish gas inventories before winter. EU officials urged member states to conserve energy and continue filling storage. European facilities are around 71% full, well below the five-year seasonal average of 87%, while Germany’s storage sites are just over 57% full. LNG imports have increased since mid-August, but supply competition remains a key risk.